Soggy Forecast for Both Gulf & East Coasts
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image (courtesy NOAA)
I’m not updating on Hurricane Fred anymore… if you want more information, go to my links under tracking hurricanes, or to the forum pages.
Both the Gulf Coast States and portions of the East Coast are getting pummeled by showers and thunderstorms that will dump heavy rain for the next couple of days. And, the National Hurricane Center is marking both with a low (less than 30%) chance for tropical development. As far as the Gulf Coast rain, it’s mainly being driven along by a mid level storm over Texas. What that means to you is, right now, it’s not tropical. However, it’s a slow moving storm that will dump HEAVY rain over Texas and Louisiana the next couple of days. Most of central Texas is already under Flash Flood Watches. Click on the following link to watch San Antonio’s rainy forecast. (Click on video forecast above the 7-day.)
Those flash flood watches will probably move to the Texas/Louisiana border and then portions of Southeastern Louisiana by the weekend.
In New York and Philadelphia, heavy rain is expected over the next couple of days due to a low pressure system hanging out just off the coast. Here’s a look at the video forecast in Philadelphia. (To see video, scroll down, it will be on the right hand side of the page.) The area of low pressure affecting the East Coast is expected to slowly lift off to the east starting Sunday. They are under flash flood watches as well.
Stay tuned to your local TV station if you live in areas along the Gulf Coast or East Coast for the latest updates. Of course, you can ALWAYS access the latest weather information from my website links here. On the right hand column, scroll down the to the green banner with the headline, “Get Your Local TV Forecast!”. Click on that link below, and you will have access to TV weather forecasts from across the 50 states.
It’s Friday!… I’ll talk to you later… -Dawn
Tropical Storm Fred
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Fred is on the verge of hurricane status, and may increase in intensity overnight. Reliable computer models continue to keep it in the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US mainland, and at some point degenerating in the 5-day forecast.
Tropical Storm Fred is currently in a healthy environment for growth, and may end up being the next major hurricane of the 2009 season in the next couple of days. Upper air steering currents are expected to keep the storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean Basin well away from the United States. This year, upper level troughs traveling across the continental United States have dominated the tropical weather pattern on the East Coast, forcing these storms on a more northerly path once the storm comes close to the US mainland. Most of the models agree on this track for Fred. Click here to track Fred.
While we like to see these upper level troughs send these storms to the middle of the Atlantic, there is another variable that these troughs and associate cold fronts produce. Once the tail end of the cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast, often the front stalls and a circulation can develop along the decaying front. This circulation can allow a tropical system to develop. At this time of year, when a cold front stalls over the Gulf or Atlantic near the coastline, meteorologists watch it closely for possible development. At least one model suggests this may happen in the Western Gulf of Mexico in the next 10 days. We will be watching for that. If you are interested in discussing Fred, check out the MYL Forums.
Also, I have Jeff Masters Weather Undergound blog in my left hand menu bar under HURRICANE BLOGS. In the next few weeks, he’s introducing a series of blogs on storm surge. Storm surge has been one of the least understood components of a hurricane’s landfall, but it can be the most destructive component along the Gulf of Mexico. More and more researchers are trying to introduce computer models to give viewers an idea of how storm surge will effect their community during a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge is very localized, meaning the impact is different depending on the terrain where you live. Last year, during Hurricane Gustav, meteorologist Mike Koziara at the National Weather Service in New Orleans briefed me on the storm surge model they run. Koziara explained that terrain factors such as railroads, levees, canals, and the coastline underwater were all included in the storm surge model. If the storm moves 100 miles to the east or west, this model won’t work, because the terrain is completely different. So, it is an exciting prospect that researchers are tackling this aspect of forecasting a landfalling hurricane.
I just got back from a dive trip on San Clemente island in California. What a great experience! Since Fred is alive and well in the Atlantic, I’ll have another update later tonight.
-Dawn Brown
Quiet Weekend… The Coolest Feature On My Site (I think… scroll down)
Quick Update: The low level circulation has disappeared on the East Coast, and now the only concern for NHC forecasters is the wave off the coast of Africa. Long term models do not bring it close to the US.
The tropics are quiet, the wildfires in California are no longer threatening homes and about 50% contained, and we are entering what is supposed to be the busiest part of hurricane season. This is a great Labor Day Weekend.
Taking a look at the infrared satellite imagery (courtesy NOAA) off the coast of Africa, there is one area of disturbed weather the National Hurricane Center has deemed 95L, but it doesn’t look to develop. (The forums are active with chatter, so check out MYL Forums to get in on the discussion.) There’s a second tropical wave right on the coast (see the blow up of reds and yellows right near the coastline?). Computer models have this wave developing in the long term outlook, but then turning north in the middle of the Atlantic. As I say this, computer models have huge problems with forecasting not only a storm’s development, but it’s intensity, especially if the storm hasn’t formed a low level circulation.
Meanwhile, take a little time to get to know myweatherlady.com. In the navigation bar above, there is a section about me, my bookmark links (I save my bookmarks at a website called delicious.com. Not all of my web links are there yet, but it will have a complete list of all the weather websites I use eventually.) Just to the right of the bookmarks, I have contact info. Currently, the only way to contact me is through this website or at my email: dawn@myweatherlady.com.
On the left hand side, there is a list of all my blogs organized by categories. Currently, the categories I have are HOME (listing all the blogs), FORECAST TODAY! (to help forecasters who move around the country adjust to their new gig), FORUMS, and TV WEATHER (my blogging about the business of TV Weather, etc.). I want to add a category for KIDS as well as for Freqently Asked Questions. I’m working on those as well as continuing to add links and blogs to the categories I just listed. Below the categories, you will find links to the best hurricane blogs from around the country (My favorites are Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, and Surfline.com forecasters–but all are extremely valuable so you don’t miss something in your forecasting), as well as other weather bloggers below that.
Meanwhile, on the right hand side, you can keep up with me through twitter, check out the latest comments on my website, go visit my t-shirt shop(there’s stuff for kids, pets and people there). Scroll down to the GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! link. I think this is the COOLEST feature on my website. When you go to this link, you will find a list of all the TV stations across the country listed by state and town. Click on the town you live in or the town you are visiting, and you will find the local weather guy or gal giving the forecast. I love it! Check out David Bernard at the CBS in Miami, Jackie Johnson at KCAL in LA, or Steven Douglas in Fairbanks, Alaska. (I just randomly chose him.)
I will be gone for the next 36 hours on a scuba diving trip, so I will not update on Monday. To track hurricanes while I’m gone, visit the hurricane blogs, or go to the weblinks I’ve set up under Tracking Hurricanes.
-Dawn Brown