Invest 98L Looks To Be Named Grace
More than 90,000 fan will pack Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge today for the second LSU home game. Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi have had heavy downpours off and on all week. Currently, Birmingham Alabama has flash flood warnings. Watch Birmingham’s forecast to find out about the heavy rains, and Baton Rouge’s forecast to find out about tailgating at Louisiana State Unversity.
Invest 98L looks like it will develop into Tropical Storm Grace this weekend. Click below to read more!
Love Quiet Mondays
Texas Rainfall (courtesy NWS)
Texas and Louisiana will begin to dry out after a weeks worth of storms dumped more than 10″ of rain in portions of Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. The area of low pressure generating those storms is slowly moving to the Northeast, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still getting hit this Monday. Coastal areas are beginning to see a break, but northern Mississippi and Alabama will be the latest victims of this slow moving system before it finally loses steam.
Grey skies across Southern California as a cold front sweeps through. Although beachgoers may not like it, the cooler temperatures are a welcome weather treat this time of year, at a time when wildfires, driven by Santa Ana winds are fed by the hot temperatures in September and October.
It is a quiet Monday across the country, and silent in the tropics as well. We can ease into the workweek.
For a couple of days now, I’ve been meaning to show you an article I saw on Smart Money magazine online. It’s about the fallacy of the 7-day forecast. The author of the article seems to be “revealing” to people that extended forecasts aren’t very good, but I don’t think any forecaster, including the ones he interviews, argues that they are! Television weathercasters give you the 7-day forecast because the computer models go out 10 days. After about three days, the forecast tends toward climatology. But, sometimes, climatology is correct. What I like about this article is the meteorologists give you the limitations of todays forecasting. What I don’t like about the article is the innuendo that weather forecasters “won’t tell you” the limitations of their forecasting, when he has several meteorologists in the interview giving him the “inside information”. Oh, and the Doppler radar does do a good job during a storm of helping the on-air meteorologist forecast the immediate weather event for the next couple of hours. It also helps the forecaster determine whether a storm is severe, and if the public needs to be warned. Here’s the link to the article:
-Dawn Brown
Soggy Forecast for Both Gulf & East Coasts
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image (courtesy NOAA)
I’m not updating on Hurricane Fred anymore… if you want more information, go to my links under tracking hurricanes, or to the forum pages.
Both the Gulf Coast States and portions of the East Coast are getting pummeled by showers and thunderstorms that will dump heavy rain for the next couple of days. And, the National Hurricane Center is marking both with a low (less than 30%) chance for tropical development. As far as the Gulf Coast rain, it’s mainly being driven along by a mid level storm over Texas. What that means to you is, right now, it’s not tropical. However, it’s a slow moving storm that will dump HEAVY rain over Texas and Louisiana the next couple of days. Most of central Texas is already under Flash Flood Watches. Click on the following link to watch San Antonio’s rainy forecast. (Click on video forecast above the 7-day.)
Those flash flood watches will probably move to the Texas/Louisiana border and then portions of Southeastern Louisiana by the weekend.
In New York and Philadelphia, heavy rain is expected over the next couple of days due to a low pressure system hanging out just off the coast. Here’s a look at the video forecast in Philadelphia. (To see video, scroll down, it will be on the right hand side of the page.) The area of low pressure affecting the East Coast is expected to slowly lift off to the east starting Sunday. They are under flash flood watches as well.
Stay tuned to your local TV station if you live in areas along the Gulf Coast or East Coast for the latest updates. Of course, you can ALWAYS access the latest weather information from my website links here. On the right hand column, scroll down the to the green banner with the headline, “Get Your Local TV Forecast!”. Click on that link below, and you will have access to TV weather forecasts from across the 50 states.
It’s Friday!… I’ll talk to you later… -Dawn
Quiet Weekend… The Coolest Feature On My Site (I think… scroll down)
Quick Update: The low level circulation has disappeared on the East Coast, and now the only concern for NHC forecasters is the wave off the coast of Africa. Long term models do not bring it close to the US.
The tropics are quiet, the wildfires in California are no longer threatening homes and about 50% contained, and we are entering what is supposed to be the busiest part of hurricane season. This is a great Labor Day Weekend.
Taking a look at the infrared satellite imagery (courtesy NOAA) off the coast of Africa, there is one area of disturbed weather the National Hurricane Center has deemed 95L, but it doesn’t look to develop. (The forums are active with chatter, so check out MYL Forums to get in on the discussion.) There’s a second tropical wave right on the coast (see the blow up of reds and yellows right near the coastline?). Computer models have this wave developing in the long term outlook, but then turning north in the middle of the Atlantic. As I say this, computer models have huge problems with forecasting not only a storm’s development, but it’s intensity, especially if the storm hasn’t formed a low level circulation.
Meanwhile, take a little time to get to know myweatherlady.com. In the navigation bar above, there is a section about me, my bookmark links (I save my bookmarks at a website called delicious.com. Not all of my web links are there yet, but it will have a complete list of all the weather websites I use eventually.) Just to the right of the bookmarks, I have contact info. Currently, the only way to contact me is through this website or at my email: dawn@myweatherlady.com.
On the left hand side, there is a list of all my blogs organized by categories. Currently, the categories I have are HOME (listing all the blogs), FORECAST TODAY! (to help forecasters who move around the country adjust to their new gig), FORUMS, and TV WEATHER (my blogging about the business of TV Weather, etc.). I want to add a category for KIDS as well as for Freqently Asked Questions. I’m working on those as well as continuing to add links and blogs to the categories I just listed. Below the categories, you will find links to the best hurricane blogs from around the country (My favorites are Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, and Surfline.com forecasters–but all are extremely valuable so you don’t miss something in your forecasting), as well as other weather bloggers below that.
Meanwhile, on the right hand side, you can keep up with me through twitter, check out the latest comments on my website, go visit my t-shirt shop(there’s stuff for kids, pets and people there). Scroll down to the GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! link. I think this is the COOLEST feature on my website. When you go to this link, you will find a list of all the TV stations across the country listed by state and town. Click on the town you live in or the town you are visiting, and you will find the local weather guy or gal giving the forecast. I love it! Check out David Bernard at the CBS in Miami, Jackie Johnson at KCAL in LA, or Steven Douglas in Fairbanks, Alaska. (I just randomly chose him.)
I will be gone for the next 36 hours on a scuba diving trip, so I will not update on Monday. To track hurricanes while I’m gone, visit the hurricane blogs, or go to the weblinks I’ve set up under Tracking Hurricanes.
-Dawn Brown