Dry Air Disrupting 98L
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) click to enlarge
The NHC is no longer listing Invest 98L as an area of possible development. Dry air has been wreaking havoc on the area of showers and thunderstorms. Friday night the bursts of reds and yellows, indicating growing thunderstorms, looked impressive. But since Saturday morning, the storm has been having trouble. Click to read more…
I Like the New NHC Homepage
Tropical Storm Marty (courtesy NOAA)
Tropical Storm Marty, left, is losing it’s punch in the Pacific, and steering currents, are turning it away from Baja California. The steering currents in the Pacific Ocean are one of the main reasons the West Coast of the United States is spared from tropical systems. When these storms form in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the storm will start it’s move toward the north, northwest, but eventually it will turn out to sea. (Note, one hurricane computer model, strengthens the storm, and takes it toward Baja, but NHC forecasters are not buying into that.) Read the NHC discussion.
I just noticed something really cool about the National Hurricane Center’s page this year. Last year, they started posting a tropical outlook image on their front page, like the image in this post. As you can see, today, it says, “Tropical Cyclone Activity is Not Expected During the Next 48 Hours.” If there is a tropical system, they will have the icon for it posted on the page, and then usually they have a couple of shaded circles on the page indicated areas of possible development. The circles are either yellow (low chance), orange (medium chance) or red (high chance) of development. This gives the internet user a quick glance at the tropics, and the areas of disturbed weather the NHC forecasters are looking at for development into tropical systems. THIS YEAR, they’ve started giving you the latest stats on the storm right below the name of the storm. For Marty, it looks like this:
8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 17
Location: 19.7°N 113.1°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
I love this feature. Before, you had to pull up the advisory or discussion, and it was in somewhere in the middle of the discussion. This makes it a lot easier to track these storms on your hurricane map!
I’m working on behind the scenes stuff today, trying to get my KIDS STUFF category updated, and my frequently asked questions link up and running. Hope you have a great day!
-Dawn Brown
National Hurricane Center
The Pacific is Getting All the Action!
Tropical Storm Marty (courtesy NOAA)
Tropical Storm Marty formed off the Mexican coast last night, and Baja California could once again be affected by a tropical system in the few days. It’s expected to weaken once it gets close to Baja, and it doesn’t look like it will be close enough for Baja to even experience tropical storm force winds. However, wave action from the system could affect swells off the Pacific coast, check out Surfline’s Hurricane Tracker forecast for the latest on the swells from this tropical system.
Remnants of Fred (courtesy NOAA)
On the left hand side of the page, I have the latest satellite imagery from the Atlantic Ocean, which shows the remnants of Hurricane Fred. Fred was the second major hurricane of the season after Hurricane Bill. In this satellite picture, the remnants of Fred are an area of showers and thunderstorms on the far right. At least one reliable computer model has Fred regenerating close to the Bahamas. But I have to remind readers once again that these computer models have trouble forecasting the intensity of a storm. If Fred did regenerate close the Bahamas, another upper level trough sweeping across the continental United States would carry Fred on a more northerly track once it moved close to the Bahamas. Keep in mind, though, the National Hurricane Center is giving the remnants of Fred a low (less than 30%) chance of redeveloping.
Meanwhile, rain from a STUBBORN area of low pressure continues to plague the Midwest. The US Radar Map shows stormy conditions over Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi from that area of low pressure that dumped heavy rain over Texas and Louisiana this past weekend. Forecast maps show that low persisting over the central United States through next week, when that large upper level trough finally moves through, changing the weather pattern. Remember, you can watch any TV broadcast anywhere across the US by clicking on my link, GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST!. The link is in the right hand column, scroll down to the bottom. Today, a lot of the weather action is in Nashville, Tennessee. You can look at the local radar, and watch the ABC Nashville TV Weather for more information.
Hurricane Ike’s Anniversary was a couple of days ago. A friend sent me this link. It’s pretty cool to see the before and after pictures compiled. I remember watching KHOU, the CBS affiliate in Houston’s, broadcast online all night.
-Dawn Brown