Irene Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA

To track Hurricane Irene, head to MYL’s Hurricane Tracking page or the National Hurricane Center website.

On Saturday, when the NHC issued its first advisory on what was then Tropical Storm Irene, the Turks and Caicos Islands were not within the National Hurricane Center track forecast. Five days later, the island chain was squarely in the most dangerous section of a major hurricane.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are emphasizing the error and uncertainty in their discussion today. Currently, the NHC is uncertain whether Irene will affect the most populous area of the United States once it starts its trek northward, turned by steering currents over the United States and the Atlantic Ocean basin. The current track has landfall on the far outer edge of the Outer Banks and then a second landfall in Montauk, New York, the most eastern point of Long Island, before moving through coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, coastal New Hampshire and then Maine. The track has been nudged farther east but hurricane forecasters aren’t confident in that forecast.

This storm is gaining strength over the warm waters of the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States will have to continue to monitor Irene.

Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans

Computer Model Temperature Chart, Image: Unisys Weather

A massive storm system that has dumped snow from California to New York and created severe weather across the South is now pulling an artic air mass toward the Central Plains. Looking at the computer model image above, places like Bismarck, North Dakota can expect highs in the “single” digits and minus-7 degree overnight lows. The frigid airmass is stretching as far south as Amarillo, Texas. Here’s a link to an Associated Press article on the impacts of this storm as it moved across the country this week.

Northeast Radar, Image: NOAA (Old)

Click for the latest Northeast Radar image.

New England is being pummeled by Ida’s rains this Friday. Marine storm warnings are in effect from Delaware and South Jersey to off the coast of Long Island to  northern New England. Click on the foregoing links for the latest watches and warnings from local TV forecasters.

NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its climate report card for the United States. According to NOAA, the United States had the third coolest October this year and the highest precipitation totals on record.

Climate State Ranks, Image: NOAA

Precipitation State Ranks, Image: NOAA

According to NOAA, “The average October temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees F below the 20th Century average. Preliminary data also reveals this was the wettest October on record with average precipitation across the contiguous United States reaching 4.15 inches, 2.04 inches above the 1901-2000 average.” (Source: NOAA)

-Dawn Brown

Thanks to all the veterans who’ve served and the soldiers serving today around the world.

-Dawn Brown

Forecasting in the Northeast can be overwhelming, especially if you start in the middle of winter! You could be dealing with lake effect snow, ice storms, sleet, freezing rain and blizzards! Here are some of the best web links to get your forecast off the computer and on the air.

After looking at the radar and satellite, (if your shop doesn’t have what you need, go to the National Weather Service Eastern Region Headquarters and Aviation Weather), follow these steps to make a forecast:

Take a look at Unisys Weather at your synoptic scale models to get storm placement, flow patterns, and 850 mb temperatures (this is available at Unisys Weather). Unisys also has the local Skew-T’s, but forecast soundings are also available here.

After you’ve figured out what’s going on in the larger scale, you can get down to the more nitty-gritty mesoscale (especially for lake-effect and even rain/snow lines).  What I typically use for this is a tool called BUFKIT which is available at Buffalo, NY National Weather Service for download along with the required data sets.

Also, especially good for lake-effect snow, is the MM5 model, which is available at SUNY Stony Brook MM5 Mesoscale Forecasts.

To wrap this up and get a good idea of the next 7 days of weather, a good standby for the latest and most complete suite of extended model runs (e.g. the GFS) is NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts.

Of course, you’ll also need a temperature forecast to compare all of your graphical data against for a highs/lows forecast.  The best place to find MOS (Model Output Statistics) is Current NWS MOS Forecast Products.

If you’d like to learn more about forecasting lake-effect snow or other winter weather phenomena, check out this website MetEd Home Page and become a member.

Another great option is to check out Haby Hints, developed by meteorologist Jeff Haby from Mississippi State University. You can go to his website and search for pretty much any weather term, and get an easy explanation of how to predict and forecast weather.

Happy forecasting!