Irene Misses Hispaniola, Now a Category 2
Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA
Hurricane Irene blew up into a category 2 hurricane with 100 mile per hour winds north of Hispaniola tonight. It missed the island is now poised to develop into a major (category 3 or stronger) hurricane as it makes its way toward the Bahamas.
At least one computer model previously forecast Irene missing Hispaniola and developing into a major hurricane. That computer model has Irene on track toward the border of South Carolina and North Carolina between Charleston and Wilmington. Most of the computer models have developed the storm into a major hurricane off the East Coast of the United States. For at least three more days, it’s going to be in a favorable environment for intensification. There is the possibility that due to the trough developing off the eastern United States, it may weaken slightly before landfall.
Computer Models, Image: Colorado State University
This same trough is expected to draw Irene north toward the Carolinas. Computer models and the National Hurricane Center continue to shift east. If you look at the latest models, there is even a possibility that Irene could miss both North and South Carolina. This scenario is not forecast at this time by the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane is urging residents along coastal United States to be aware the the forecast error for the 5-day forecast is from 200 to 250 miles. (The forecast error is how they develop the “cone of error or uncertainty) that you see in the graphic below.
Irene 5 Day Forecast, Image: NOAA
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans
Dense Fog Seeps into Gulf States
US Watches and Warnings, Image: NOAA
Click for the latest national watches and warnings.
As you can see from the map above, dense fog advisories extend from central Texas to North Carolina. Advisories are posted when the visibility is 1/4 mile or less. That’s about 1300 feet. Dense fog can be a persistent problem along the Gulf South this time of year after a spell of cold weather. A warm, tropical air mass will override that cold air, and create a perfect setup for fog. Fog is a winter hazard. Here’s the link to my previous blog about fog.
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
Heavy rain is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama later today.
Snow is forecast for parts of Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. And, a winter storm is crossing the Cascades in the West.
-Dawn Brown