Tropics Still Quiet! Cold Air Sweeping East…
Cool Air For Sunday, Image: Unisys Weather
Does this image look familiar? Okay, that might be a trick question. It’s probably been a long week for you too. But, I posted almost the exact same image from Unisys Weather on Monday, talking about the cool down on both coasts. It looks like the weather pattern is going to repeat itself for the beginning of next week, with cool Canadian air seeping into the forecast for the West Coast, Midwest and East Coast. Cooler, drier temperatures will make it as far south as Albuquerque, New Mexico and Jackson, Mississippi.
It may be jacket weather tonight for Friday Night Football.
Satellite Image 90L, Image: NOAA
The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the Atlantic. The satellite imagery shows a less than impressive area of showers and thunderstorms, and NHC forecasters give it a less than 30% chance for development.
It’s going to be a quiet weekend in the tropics. Honestly, it’s October 2nd. I’ll keep watching the tropics, but it’s looking like a pretty uneventful year. Dry air and wind shear did a number on most developing storms.
I hope you had a chance to read my blog about the SAL and hurricanes. I’ll continue to update the article when I find out more information. Research regarding the Saharan Air Layer and its effect on hurricanes is ongoing. This year, however, the SAL was not widespread. Scientists are favoring the idea that El Nino and the wind shear that is associated with it, dry air, and the upper level wind pattern were the main reasons for the somewhat uneventful year in the Atlantic Ocean. I’ll talk more about that at the end of the season when we have some expert opinions on this topic.
Check out the new category on my page: Hurricane Special. It has an article about Dr. William Gray, the hurricane forecaster, and the Saharan Air Layer.
Also, Dr. Jeff Masters has the latest on the typhoon (hurricanes in the western Pacific) on his blog. The storms are lining up in the western Pacific Ocean. His blog is in the links to your left.
-Dawn Brown
Tropical Depression 8
Tropical Depression #8 (Courtesy NOAA) Click to Enlarge
Tropical Depression 8 has formed in the Atlantic Ocean, west of the Cape Verde Islands. National Hurricane forecasters think it may strengthen into Tropical Storm Grace before quickly weakening and then dissipating over the Eastern Atlantic.
If you want to track the storm, here’s a link to Tracking Hurricanes on my website, and the MYL Forums if you want to discuss the depression with other weather enthusiasts.
-Dawn Brown
Freeze Warnings! Snow! It’s Only the First Day of Fall.
Freeze watches extended as far south as Albuquerque this morning. Cold air is plunging to the south across the Rocky Mountains on this first day of Fall. You can watch the local TV weather forecasts in Albuquerque, New Mexico and Denver, Colorado by clicking on the link below.
Freeze Watches in Albuquerque!
For the latest on weather across the United States and the tropics, click to Read More.
Floods, High Winds, Quiet in the Tropics!
High wind warnings are in effect for Southern California the next couple of days. Warm temperatures, low humidity and highs winds is a bad combination during fire season. Here’s the latest forecast from Los Angeles.
Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia continue to be hit by flash flooding. Once again, you can click on ABC Birmingham for the very latest in radar reports, warnings and the current weather forecast from the local television affiliate. I also have a link to the NBC Atlanta Forecast where heavy rain continues this Monday.
Oklahoma today is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Watch FOX Oklahoma City later this afternoon for the latest watches and warnings.
The National Hurricane Center continues to predict no tropical development in the next 48 hours. The one tropical wave I was watching, Invest 98L, is showing a little bit more organization this morning. Currently, it’s just an area of showers and thunderstorms out in the middle of the Atlantic. Dry air over the past couple of days has been getting mixed into the area of disturbed weather, and kept it from developing into a tropical system. No matter what, it won’t affect the US. My previous blog has more details on the dry air that’s been affecting Invest 98L.
-Dawn Brown
Dry Air Disrupting 98L
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) click to enlarge
The NHC is no longer listing Invest 98L as an area of possible development. Dry air has been wreaking havoc on the area of showers and thunderstorms. Friday night the bursts of reds and yellows, indicating growing thunderstorms, looked impressive. But since Saturday morning, the storm has been having trouble. Click to read more…
Invest 98L Looks To Be Named Grace
More than 90,000 fan will pack Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge today for the second LSU home game. Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi have had heavy downpours off and on all week. Currently, Birmingham Alabama has flash flood warnings. Watch Birmingham’s forecast to find out about the heavy rains, and Baton Rouge’s forecast to find out about tailgating at Louisiana State Unversity.
Invest 98L looks like it will develop into Tropical Storm Grace this weekend. Click below to read more!
A New Invest In the Atlantic
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) Click to Enlarge
The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane models are trying to develop a tropical wave out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. It is currently called 98L. (You can always click on the image to make it larger.) I think it’s a good chance this system could develop into another tropical system based on warm sea surface temperatures and favorable wind shear where it’s currently located. However, as it continues its westward migration, it will run into a good bit of wind shear,
Wind Shear (Courtesy NOAA - Hurricane Research Division)
and that will cause problems for the developing storm. As I’ve mentioned in the past, global computer models have a tough time forecasting the strengthening of a storm, the track forecast is more reliable. And the track forecast has this system turning north in the middle of the Atlantic, if it does develop. With the current weather pattern, upper level troughs spinning off the East Coast of the United States, these storms are being turned north before they can come close to the United States this year. Tomorrow, I’ll explain what an upper level trough is… and why it’s helped us out this year!
These troughs have also created a cool summer for a good section of the country.
Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, looked at the climate data from this past summer, and had some interesting information about our summer.
Here’s the script from his blog:
“A cool August and cool summer for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average August temperature was 0.6°F below average, making it the 30th coolest August in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. as a whole was below normal for the summer period (June – August). A recurring upper level trough held the June – August temperatures down in the central states, where Michigan experienced its fifth coolest summer, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota their seventh coolest each, Nebraska its eighth, and Iowa its ninth. In contrast, the temperatures in Florida averaged out to be fourth warmest, while Washington and Texas experienced their eighth and ninth warmest summers, respectively.
U.S. precipitation in August was below average, as the month ranked 28th driest in the 115-year record. Arizona had its fourth driest August, New Mexico its fifth, and it was the eighth driest August for Colorado, Utah and Texas. Arizona observed its third driest summer, while both South Carolina and Georgia had their sixth driest. It was the 8th wettest summer on record in the Northeast.
At the end of August, 13% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South to Central Texas. However, significant drought relief occurred in this region the second week of September, when a large area of tropical moisture settled in over the region, bringing heavy rains. About 19 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the severely to extremely wet categories in August.”
The link for Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderground Blog is on the left side of my screen. I’m sure he’ll have something about Invest 98L later today.
I’ll talk to you tomorrow! -Dawn Brown
I Like the New NHC Homepage
Tropical Storm Marty (courtesy NOAA)
Tropical Storm Marty, left, is losing it’s punch in the Pacific, and steering currents, are turning it away from Baja California. The steering currents in the Pacific Ocean are one of the main reasons the West Coast of the United States is spared from tropical systems. When these storms form in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the storm will start it’s move toward the north, northwest, but eventually it will turn out to sea. (Note, one hurricane computer model, strengthens the storm, and takes it toward Baja, but NHC forecasters are not buying into that.) Read the NHC discussion.
I just noticed something really cool about the National Hurricane Center’s page this year. Last year, they started posting a tropical outlook image on their front page, like the image in this post. As you can see, today, it says, “Tropical Cyclone Activity is Not Expected During the Next 48 Hours.” If there is a tropical system, they will have the icon for it posted on the page, and then usually they have a couple of shaded circles on the page indicated areas of possible development. The circles are either yellow (low chance), orange (medium chance) or red (high chance) of development. This gives the internet user a quick glance at the tropics, and the areas of disturbed weather the NHC forecasters are looking at for development into tropical systems. THIS YEAR, they’ve started giving you the latest stats on the storm right below the name of the storm. For Marty, it looks like this:
8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 17
Location: 19.7°N 113.1°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
I love this feature. Before, you had to pull up the advisory or discussion, and it was in somewhere in the middle of the discussion. This makes it a lot easier to track these storms on your hurricane map!
I’m working on behind the scenes stuff today, trying to get my KIDS STUFF category updated, and my frequently asked questions link up and running. Hope you have a great day!
-Dawn Brown
National Hurricane Center