Weak Tropical Storm Arlene on Track for Mexico
Tropical Storm Arlene, Image: NOAA
The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene at 7pm Central Daylight Time this Tuesday, June 28th. The storm’s satellite presentation isn’t all that impressive, but it’s kicking up some good wave heights in the central Gulf of Mexico (up to 12′). The area of showers and thunderstorms west of the Yucatan Peninsula has been fairly persistent over the last few days and observations near the center of the storms show maximum sustained winds of about 40 miles per hour.
Arlene is expected to make landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico sometime on Thursday. It could provide some heavy rainfall for Tampico, Ciudad Valle and San Luis de La Paz Mexico. This is a mountainous region of central Mexico and tropical storms can dump copious amounts of rain over this region.
For the latest statistics on Arlene, go to the National Hurricane Center website. This is expected to be a fairly active hurricane season.
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans
2011 Hurricane Season Begins
The National Hurricane Center is currently watching two areas in the Atlantic for the possibility of development into a tropical system.
Gulf of Mexico Disturbance, IR Imagery, NOAA
The infrared image above shows the area of showers and thunderstorms from the system in the Gulf of Mexico. A line of heavy thunderstorms rolled through Tampa earlier today associated with that disturbance. Both have a 10% chance for development. There is the possibility this area of showers and thunderstorms could strengthen over the central Gulf of Mexico before quickly weakening because of the amount of wind shear in the western Gulf.
Wind Shear, Gulf of Mexico, Image: University of Wisconsin
The GFS or global forecast system model (which has its own Facebook page) has been developing the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea since the beginning of the week.
Last year, the GFS did a fairly good job of showing areas of possible development at the far end of the forecast cycle. For example, the GFS model run goes out 15 days in the future. Last year, most of the systems it showed developing at the end of that 15 day cycle did develop. However, not all of them developed into a tropical storm or hurricane as the model predicted. It used to be that we could discount a tropical storm that developed at the end of the model run because it just wasn’t accurate. That’s not the case anymore. It may be there, but we still don’t know what kind of storm we’ll be dealing with.
Back to today! The active weather pattern continues across the US. Springfield, Massachusetts got hit with a tornado today. And Kansas has more storms rolling through tonight.
Dr. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach came out with their latest hurricane forecast today. No changes from their April forecast update. Gray/Klotzbach are still forecasting 16 named storms, 9 of those to become hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Klotzbach and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center point to above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean; a La Nina or neutral La Nina, which leads to low wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean; and a multidecadel cycle of active hurricane seasons.
I’ll be back tomorrow with an update on these disturbances being watched by the National Hurricane Center. Go to my Hurricane Tracking page to follow the latest storms.
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 News, New Orleans, dbrown@fox8live.com
High Winds, Heavy Rain… Ahead of IDA
Gulf Coast Radar, Image: NOAA Image is Old!
Click on the following link for the latest radar image of Ida. Ida continues to plow toward the Gulf Coast, creating high winds, and dumping heavy rain on Panama City, Florida, Mobile, Alabama and coastal areas outside of New Orleans, Louisiana. TV forecasters in those areas can give you the latest watches and warnings, and current position of Tropical Storm Ida. It appears the worst of the heavy rain is out ahead of the storm.
Ida Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
-Dawn Brown
Ida Weakens In Hostile Environment
Ida weakens due to wind shear, cold sea surface temps, and dry air. All hurricane warnings have been dropped. Tropical storm warnings from Louisiana to Florida. Isolated heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast expected. It looks like Ida is transitioning from a tropical to an extra-tropical or winter-type low pressure system. High winds and isolated heavy rain will still be a problem.
9AM Update from National Hurricane Center:
The center of tropical storm Ida was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 88.3 West, or about 185 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi river and about 285 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida
Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph. A turn toward the north and then to the north-northeast is expected over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ida is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday morning. After landfall, a turn to the east is expected on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds continue to decrease and area now near 70 mph with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today as Ida approaches the coast.
-Dawn Brown
Wind Shear is Ripping Ida Apart
Ida Weakens, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Ida is looking pretty ragged this morning as wind shear over the Gulf Coast is starting to tear the storm apart.
Hurricane Ida’s winds are down to 80 miles an hour. 30 knots or 35 mile per hour wind shear is tearing the storm apart. National Hurricane Center forecasters still forecast a hurricane at landfall, but I think that’s generous to say the storm will maintain these winds over the next 24 hours. I think heavy rain and possibly up to 60 mile per hour winds at landfall are what Gulf Coast residents can expect out of this storm. The tropical storm force winds will be relegated to the Alabama/Florida border.
Hurricane watches and warnings remain for the northern Gulf Coast. For the latest watches and warnings, go to GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! on the right hand side of this page. It is the last green tab on the right. You can watch forecasters from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida forecasting this storm!
Ida Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
-Dawn Brown
Tropical Storm Ida Will Bring Heavy Rain
Tropical Storm Ida 5-day Track, Image: NHC, NOAA
Tropical Storm Ida has made a comeback, packing 60 mile per hour winds this Saturday morning as it quickly makes a beeline for the central Gulf of Mexico. The northern Gulf Coast could be slammed with heavy rain Monday and Tuesday. You’ll notice on the hurricane tracking map from the National Hurricane Center Ida will become extra-tropical or more like a winter-type cyclone by Tuesday. Strong winds and large waves could still affect portions of the Gulf Coast, and you need to watch your local TV forecast for the latest watches and warnings — go to GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! in the right hand column of this website. You can see from the tracking map that even though portions of Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the panhandle of Florida will receive some heavy rain and gusty winds, they will avoid the damaging winds and coastal surge associated with a tropical storm or hurricane.
Tropical Storm Ida Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA
The storm is looking fairly healthy this morning. This wasn’t unexpected as it is over a deep well of warm water over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is possible it could strengthen into a hurricane in the next 24-hours as it makes its way through the Yucatan Straits. Once Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter cooler waters and high wind shear. (60-90 miles an hour) For more information on wind shear and how it affects storms, see my previous blog from earlier this week.
-Dawn Brown
Ida Looks Like a Tropical Storm… Again
Satellite Image Ida, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
This is a quick update to let you know that Ida is starting to look more and more organized, and will probably be back at tropical storm status by the next update at 4am ET from the National Hurricane Center.
Ida has a lot of warm water to work with over the western Caribbean Sea, and by the look of the satellite picture, the deep well of warm water is helping the storm reorganize. There is also a lot of wind shear in this part of the Caribbean. However, all of the computer models continue to strengthen Ida. It is going to be interesting to find out what happens when it cross the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.
For the latest computer model tracks, go to my Hurricane Tracking link to your left. The forecast is still pretty tricky, heavy rain out ahead of Ida will still definitely affect the northern Gulf Coast and Florida.
-Dawn Brown
Ida Still Weak, Heads Toward Gulf
Ida Heads Toward Gulf: Image, NOAA (click to enlarge)
This is a current satellite image of Tropical Depression Ida, which is still spinning on the coastal plains of the Nicaraguan/Honduran border (It is still inland-will move over the western Caribbean Sea later today.) For the last 24-hours, computer models continue to develop Ida back into a tropical storm or minimal hurricane and send it into the Gulf of Mexico.
That is where the forecast gets a little tricky. At this time of year, strong winds over the southern portion of the United States could either send Ida on a fast track toward Florida (possibly as a minimal hurricane), or tear the storm apart in the middle of the Gulf. Wind shear in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico right now is about 45-90 miles per hour. Tropical systems don’t like wind shear greater than about 20 miles per hour.
The National Hurricane Center is going with more typical thinking for the weather patterns at this time of year. Forecasters there believe the storm will transition from a tropical storm into a winter-type low pressure system somewhere in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, and head toward Florida (possibly) as a heavy rainmaker.
Computer Model - Ida Tuesday, Image: Unisys Weather
This computer model image shows the storm pattern across the United States. (The color contours show areas of stronger winds and colder air–the blues and greens.) What is important for you to note about this image is where Ida is located on this model on Tuesday. It is just north of Cuba. Now, let’s take a look at the computer model image from Wednesday.
Computer Model - Ida Wednesday, Image: Unisys Weather
In this image, Ida has weakened, and the steering currents aren’t letting it move closer to the northern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the steering currents aren’t letting the storm move much at all. That’s why I say the forecast gets a little tricky when the storm tries to get into the Gulf of Mexico, and why forecasters say things like Ida will be “stranded” once it gets into the Gulf. It’s because the upper level steering currents won’t let it move closer to the United States. This is why the spaghetti plot lines go straight north for the next 5 days, and then they bend BACK toward the South.
Ida Spaghetti Plots, Image: Weather Underground
These spaghetti plots from Weather Underground tell the story. For the latest track forecast on Ida, please go to my Hurricane Tracking links to your left.
Dr. Jeff Masters has some thoughts in his blog today on why Ida will strengthen in the western Caribbean Sea, despite some pretty good wind shear, because of the large amount of warm water. Also, I’d be interested to see what Max Mayfield, (former director of the National Hurricane Center), has to say about Ida in his blog later today, since he’s still based out of Miami. Check out their hurricane blogs to your left.
Meanwhile, have you checked out the heavy rain forecast for the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Tropical moisture will be heading toward the northern Gulf ahead of Ida for Sunday through Tuesday.
-Dawn Brown
Baja Prepares for Another Hit
Hurricane Rick Satellite, Image: NOAA
Baja California is preparing for another strike by a hurricane this season. Resort towns near Los Cabos, Mexico are preparing for a direct hit. Visible satellite imagery above shows a weakening Hurricane Rick, although it still packs winds up to 105 miles per hour this Monday afternoon. In September, Hurricane Jimena made landfall north of resort areas near Los Cabos as a category 2 hurricane, quickly weakening as it moved onshore.
Wind Probabilities Hurricane Rick, Image: NOAA
3 Day Track Forecast Hurricane Rick, Image: NOAA
Currently, National Hurricane Center forecasters believe the storm will still be a hurricane when it approaches Los Cabos on Wednesday. Wave action caused by the storms’ high winds is already being blamed for one death in the Los Cabos resort area. The first image above is a product from the National Hurricane Center that shows the probability of tropical storm or hurricane force winds. Currently there is a 70-80% chance of tropical storm force winds affecting Cabo San Lucas on Wednesday.
Large swells from the storms high winds over the last several days will definitely affect the coast of Baja and Mexico. At one point Rick’s maximum sustained winds topped out at 180 miles per hour. Category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale are 155mph+.
For the latest on Hurricane Rick, please go to my section on Tracking Hurricanes and the MYL Forums.
For the latest on the high swells, check out the forecast from Surfline. Their blog is on the menu bar on the left hand side. Surfline has some great forecasters with the latest information on wind and wave action.
On the East Coast of the United States, it feels like winter! Cold weather advisories are in effect from Georgia to Pennsylvania.
-Dawn Brown
Stormy Monday Setup
US Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA
It’s a stormy start to the workweek for the Gulf South. A line of heavy rain is soaking the Gulf States, and a broader area of heavy rain is falling across the Mid-Atlantic region. Catch the latest TV forecasts from Savannah, Georgia and New Orleans, LA The ugly weather will start to end from west to east later on today, the Carolinas could still experience some rain showers tomorrow. Meanwhile, a winter storm is still casting its spell on the wild West. Forecasters in Casper, Wyoming say things will get better later on this afternoon.
Tropical Storm Grace is headed to the northeast in the eastern Atlantic The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Grace late last night. Grace is west of Europe. NHC forecasters believe it will begin to weaken later today and a non-tropical low will absorb Grace later tonight or tomorrow.
-Dawn Brown