Southern Snow!
Dallas/Fort Worth Snow, Image: NOAA
Snow blanketed the Dallas/Fort Worth area this morning. The pictures above were taken from the National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth. Up to 8″ of snow is expected in some locations northwest of Dallas.
Winter Storm Warnings, Image: NOAA
Winter storm warnings are in effect across Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi today as a Gulf Low slams into a frigid air mass over the Southern Plains. A warm, moist air mass following the southern jet stream is being driven into the cold, dry air mass. Sleet is already being reported in areas outside New Orleans, LA.
Places like Jackson, Mississippi and Shreveport, Louisiana could receive up to 6 inches of snow.
Meanwhile, the East Coast is digging out from the latest pile up of snow. The back to back storms have shut down the nation’s capital.
Snow Depth, Image: NOAA
The graphic above shows the snow depth in the Mid-Atlantic region as of today. The areas in dark blue have recorded more than 30 inches of snow. You can see South Jersey, Southern Pennsylvania, Northern Virginia, Maryland, D.C. and Delaware are covered with 3 feet of snow.
Luckily, it appears the latest gulf storm will track off the coast of the Carolinas, and will not affect the metropolitan areas of D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia.
-Dawn Brown
Southern & Western Wallop
Yet another El Nino system is pulling into the California coast. One to three inches of rain has already fallen across the foothills surrounding the Sacramento Valley and more is on the way, creating flooding across many of the lower elevations. Up in the mountains near Lake Tahoe, near blizzard conditions are happening right now with a good 8 to 16 inches of snow on the way for skiers.
National Satellite Image, Image: NOAA
Click here for the latest national satellite imagery.
In the meantime, yet another El Nino storm is moving through the Deep South. This has provided for a couple of inches of rain across the central Gulf Coast and tornado watches from just north of New Orleans, all the way up into Mississippi, east Texas, and southern Arkansas. Tornadoes were even spotted Wednesday afternoon over portions of Southeastern Louisiana. Tornado Watches are in effect for cities like Jackson, MS.
US Watches & Warnings, Image: NOAA
Flooding Rains Across Gulf South
Radar, Southeast States, Image: NOAA (Image is OLD!)
Click here for the latest radar imagery.
Flooding rains continue to fall in New Orleans, Louisiana this morning, as a tropical air mass collides with a cold front. Flash flood watches are in affect for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina today. The cold front will begin to march east later tonight. New Orleans has experienced a record amount of rain in the last few days with 21.20″ of rain since December 1. Rain is still falling.
After a brief break, more rain is possible at the end of the week as another Gulf low sets up south of Houston, Texas.
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
An arctic air mass is once again trying to make its way into the Great Lakes region. It’s in the single digits in Minneapolis today.
Temperatures along the Gulf South will drop from the 70s to the 50s by Wednesday.
A Pacific storm is dumping rain and snow across the Northwest.
-Dawn Brown
Dense Fog Seeps into Gulf States
US Watches and Warnings, Image: NOAA
Click for the latest national watches and warnings.
As you can see from the map above, dense fog advisories extend from central Texas to North Carolina. Advisories are posted when the visibility is 1/4 mile or less. That’s about 1300 feet. Dense fog can be a persistent problem along the Gulf South this time of year after a spell of cold weather. A warm, tropical air mass will override that cold air, and create a perfect setup for fog. Fog is a winter hazard. Here’s the link to my previous blog about fog.
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
Heavy rain is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama later today.
Snow is forecast for parts of Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. And, a winter storm is crossing the Cascades in the West.
-Dawn Brown
Ida Advances as a Cat 2 Hurricane
Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
- Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Hurricane Ida is advancing toward the northern Gulf Coast as a category 2 hurricane this Sunday with maximum winds up to 105 miles per hour. In their discussion National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate the satellite presentation of the eye is looking a little more ragged this Sunday evening. The wind shear in this part of the Gulf of Mexico is about 30 knots, or about 35 miles per hour.
The southwesterly shear is expected to slightly weaken the storm as it continues its northerly course. Click here for the latest wind shear image.
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Ida to remain a hurricane for the next 36 hours, making landfall as a possibly category 1 hurricane near the Alabama/Florida border. It is expected to make a transition to a winter-type cyclone when it collides with a cold front that is currently crossing the central United States. Current computer model forecasts suggest Ida may be forced on a more easterly track because of this oncoming front. (Go to the Hurricane Tracking link to your left.) By Monday morning, Ida’s fate and its impact on the Gulf Coast will become more apparent. Overnight, we’ll know how Ida is handling the increased wind shear and the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. As I say this, the computer models have done a pretty good job of forecasting Ida’s re-strengthening in the Caribbean and Gulf, and they continue to forecast a storm with hurricane force winds at landfall.
Storm Surge Modeling from the National Hurricane Center gives coastal residents an idea of the probability of being affected by storm surge and higher than average tides. When you are looking at the map, zoom into your area. Then, choose probability of storm surge either above 2′, 3′, 4′… etc. Then click on the button, “Load Data”.
Currently, there is a 5-10 % probability of storm surge above 6′ affecting coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. The probabilities change based on the strength and path of the storm. Watch your local TV forecasts in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for the latest watches and warnings.
-Dawn Brown
Hurricane Watch for Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Hurricane Ida gained strength last night over the deep well of warm water over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is now a category 1 hurricane with 90 mile an hour winds. It may strengthen briefly again, before weakening over the central Gulf. Hurricane watches have now been posted for coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Click on the link for your state for the latest watches and warnings from your local TV forecaster.
Hurricane Ida, Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
The visible satellite imagery of Ida shows that Ida is experiencing some wind shear to the north and west of the storm. The pool of warm water that has allowed Ida to strengthen once again will start to come to an end once it enters the central Gulf of Mexico. However, with its forward speed, Ida may not have time to substantially weaken before landfall. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Ida to maintain hurricane status for the next 2 days. It’s possible that it will still have hurricane force winds when it is about 110 miles away from Grand Isle, Louisiana. The storm is tightly packed and that may help ease the impact on northern Gulf States. Currently, Ida is about 60 miles from Cancun, and maximum winds experienced there are about 15 miles per hour. (Source: Weather Underground )
When Ida is about 20 miles south of Gulf Shores, Alabama, maximum sustained winds are expected to be about 70 miles per hour. At that point, it is expected to be making the transition from a tropical hurricane to an extra-tropical storm. During the transition, the storm can expand, and the high winds could affect a larger area.
Coastal tides in Louisiana area expected to be about 5-6 feet above normal Sunday night into Monday.
-Dawn Brown
Is Cooler Air Here to Stay?
Today's Snow Depth, Image: NOAA, Click to Enlarge
Look at the snow! This is a picture of the average snow depth across the United States on this Sunday. What’s interesting about this picture is not the fact that five percent of the country is covered in snow. The percentage is not that unusual for the month of October. What is unusual is where the snow is located. When I look back at the snow analysis for the middle of October for that last ten years, most of the early season snow occurred over the Rocky Mountains. This year, the Great Lakes, Appalachians, Upstate New York and New England have snow accumulations. (Source : National Snow Analysis )
This goes hand-in-hand with the cooler than average summer experienced by the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard as well. The upper air pattern continues to bring cooler weather to these regions. However, as I posted on Wednesday, this cool summer is no indication of what winter will look like in the same areas. In fact, NOAA is forecasting a warmer than average winter across the northern tier states. On Thursday, NOAA published its El Nino Outlook, with newer and (much prettier) pictures than I created on my blog last Wednesday, showing folks the climate outlook for this winter.
El Nino Climate Outlook, Image: NOAA
El Nino Climate Outlook 2, Image: NOAA
You can see from the first image above that the Pacific Northwest and Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys are expected to be drier than average. And the entire northern half of the United States is expected to be warmer. Sweet relief will come to the Southeastern States, with a cooler than average winter. Higher than average precipitation is expected for California and the Southern United States. (This the forecast for December through February.)
Today, cold weather warnings have been posted all across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys for states from Ohio and Pennsylvania to Alabama and Mississippi. Here’s the latest TV forecasts from FOX Nashville and Biloxi, Mississippi.
Great football weather! Enjoy the games.
-Dawn Brown