Freeze Warnings! Snow! It’s Only the First Day of Fall.
Freeze watches extended as far south as Albuquerque this morning. Cold air is plunging to the south across the Rocky Mountains on this first day of Fall. You can watch the local TV weather forecasts in Albuquerque, New Mexico and Denver, Colorado by clicking on the link below.
Freeze Watches in Albuquerque!
For the latest on weather across the United States and the tropics, click to Read More.
Floods, High Winds, Quiet in the Tropics!
High wind warnings are in effect for Southern California the next couple of days. Warm temperatures, low humidity and highs winds is a bad combination during fire season. Here’s the latest forecast from Los Angeles.
Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia continue to be hit by flash flooding. Once again, you can click on ABC Birmingham for the very latest in radar reports, warnings and the current weather forecast from the local television affiliate. I also have a link to the NBC Atlanta Forecast where heavy rain continues this Monday.
Oklahoma today is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Watch FOX Oklahoma City later this afternoon for the latest watches and warnings.
The National Hurricane Center continues to predict no tropical development in the next 48 hours. The one tropical wave I was watching, Invest 98L, is showing a little bit more organization this morning. Currently, it’s just an area of showers and thunderstorms out in the middle of the Atlantic. Dry air over the past couple of days has been getting mixed into the area of disturbed weather, and kept it from developing into a tropical system. No matter what, it won’t affect the US. My previous blog has more details on the dry air that’s been affecting Invest 98L.
-Dawn Brown
Dry Air Disrupting 98L
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) click to enlarge
The NHC is no longer listing Invest 98L as an area of possible development. Dry air has been wreaking havoc on the area of showers and thunderstorms. Friday night the bursts of reds and yellows, indicating growing thunderstorms, looked impressive. But since Saturday morning, the storm has been having trouble. Click to read more…
Invest 98L Remains Disorganized…
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) Click to Enlarge
Invest 98L is not looking good today. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave looked pretty impressive Friday night into Saturday, but now not so much! The NHC’s hurricane model still develops the invest into a tropical storm. If it does, it’s not going to affect the US.
Heavy rain continues across the midsection of the country. Flash flood warnings near Memphis, Tennessee and St. Louis Missouri. Watch ABC Memphis Weather for the latest on the storms there. And, here’s a link to the CBS St. Louis Weather forecast.
Dawn Brown
Invest 98L Looks To Be Named Grace
More than 90,000 fan will pack Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge today for the second LSU home game. Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi have had heavy downpours off and on all week. Currently, Birmingham Alabama has flash flood warnings. Watch Birmingham’s forecast to find out about the heavy rains, and Baton Rouge’s forecast to find out about tailgating at Louisiana State Unversity.
Invest 98L looks like it will develop into Tropical Storm Grace this weekend. Click below to read more!
Quick Update on 98L
No real changes from this morning. At least two reliable computer models continue to forecast the development of Invest 98L, even though it may run into some strong wind shear as it continues its westward movement across the Atlantic. If you look at my earlier post, there’s a graphic of how wind shear cuts off the tops of developing storms.
Heavy rain continues across the midsection of the country. Here’s the Memphis Weathercast.
-Dawn Brown
A New Invest In the Atlantic
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) Click to Enlarge
The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane models are trying to develop a tropical wave out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. It is currently called 98L. (You can always click on the image to make it larger.) I think it’s a good chance this system could develop into another tropical system based on warm sea surface temperatures and favorable wind shear where it’s currently located. However, as it continues its westward migration, it will run into a good bit of wind shear,
Wind Shear (Courtesy NOAA - Hurricane Research Division)
and that will cause problems for the developing storm. As I’ve mentioned in the past, global computer models have a tough time forecasting the strengthening of a storm, the track forecast is more reliable. And the track forecast has this system turning north in the middle of the Atlantic, if it does develop. With the current weather pattern, upper level troughs spinning off the East Coast of the United States, these storms are being turned north before they can come close to the United States this year. Tomorrow, I’ll explain what an upper level trough is… and why it’s helped us out this year!
These troughs have also created a cool summer for a good section of the country.
Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, looked at the climate data from this past summer, and had some interesting information about our summer.
Here’s the script from his blog:
“A cool August and cool summer for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average August temperature was 0.6°F below average, making it the 30th coolest August in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. as a whole was below normal for the summer period (June – August). A recurring upper level trough held the June – August temperatures down in the central states, where Michigan experienced its fifth coolest summer, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota their seventh coolest each, Nebraska its eighth, and Iowa its ninth. In contrast, the temperatures in Florida averaged out to be fourth warmest, while Washington and Texas experienced their eighth and ninth warmest summers, respectively.
U.S. precipitation in August was below average, as the month ranked 28th driest in the 115-year record. Arizona had its fourth driest August, New Mexico its fifth, and it was the eighth driest August for Colorado, Utah and Texas. Arizona observed its third driest summer, while both South Carolina and Georgia had their sixth driest. It was the 8th wettest summer on record in the Northeast.
At the end of August, 13% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South to Central Texas. However, significant drought relief occurred in this region the second week of September, when a large area of tropical moisture settled in over the region, bringing heavy rains. About 19 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the severely to extremely wet categories in August.”
The link for Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderground Blog is on the left side of my screen. I’m sure he’ll have something about Invest 98L later today.
I’ll talk to you tomorrow! -Dawn Brown