October’s Climate Report

Northeast Radar, Image: NOAA (Old)

Click for the latest Northeast Radar image.

New England is being pummeled by Ida’s rains this Friday. Marine storm warnings are in effect from Delaware and South Jersey to off the coast of Long Island to  northern New England. Click on the foregoing links for the latest watches and warnings from local TV forecasters.

NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its climate report card for the United States. According to NOAA, the United States had the third coolest October this year and the highest precipitation totals on record.

Climate State Ranks, Image: NOAA

Precipitation State Ranks, Image: NOAA

According to NOAA, “The average October temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees F below the 20th Century average. Preliminary data also reveals this was the wettest October on record with average precipitation across the contiguous United States reaching 4.15 inches, 2.04 inches above the 1901-2000 average.” (Source: NOAA)

-Dawn Brown

Ida Could Bring Flooding Rain

National Radar, (Old) Image; NOAA

Ida has finally made the transition to an extratropical cyclone (winter-type storm) this morning. Click here for the latest national radar imagery. Forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama, Atlanta, Georgia, and the Carolinas are following the storm. These areas could suffer from flooding rains over the next few days. Watch your local TV forecaster for the latest watches and warnings.

-Dawn Brown

Wind Shear is Ripping Ida Apart

Ida Weakens, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Ida is looking pretty ragged this morning as wind shear over the Gulf Coast is starting to tear the storm apart.

Hurricane Ida’s winds are down to 80 miles an hour. 30 knots or 35 mile per hour wind shear is tearing the storm apart. National Hurricane Center forecasters still forecast a hurricane at landfall, but I think that’s generous to say the storm will maintain these winds over the next 24 hours. I think heavy rain and possibly up to 60 mile per hour winds at landfall are what Gulf Coast residents can expect out of this storm. The tropical storm force winds will be relegated to the Alabama/Florida border.

Hurricane watches and warnings remain for the northern Gulf Coast. For the latest watches and warnings, go to GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! on the right hand side of this page. It is the last green tab on the right. You can watch forecasters from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida forecasting this storm!

Ida Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

-Dawn Brown

Ida Advances as a Cat 2 Hurricane

Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida is advancing toward the northern Gulf Coast as a category 2 hurricane this Sunday with maximum winds up to 105 miles per hour. In their discussion National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate the satellite presentation of the eye is looking a little more ragged this Sunday evening. The wind shear in this part of the Gulf of Mexico is about 30 knots, or about 35 miles per hour.

The southwesterly shear is expected to slightly weaken the storm as it continues its northerly course. Click here for the latest wind shear image.

The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Ida to remain a hurricane for the next 36 hours, making landfall as a possibly category 1 hurricane near the Alabama/Florida border. It is expected to make a transition to a winter-type cyclone when it collides with a cold front that is currently crossing the central United States. Current computer model forecasts suggest Ida may be forced on a more easterly track because of this oncoming front. (Go to the Hurricane Tracking link to your left.) By Monday morning, Ida’s fate and its impact on the Gulf Coast will become more apparent. Overnight, we’ll know how Ida is handling the increased wind shear and the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. As I say this, the computer models have done a pretty good job of forecasting Ida’s re-strengthening in the Caribbean and Gulf, and they continue to forecast a storm with hurricane force winds at landfall.

Storm Surge Modeling from the National Hurricane Center gives coastal residents an idea of the probability of being affected by storm surge and higher than average tides. When you are looking at the map, zoom into your area. Then, choose probability of storm surge either above 2′, 3′, 4′… etc. Then click on the button, “Load Data”.

Currently, there is a 5-10 % probability of storm surge above 6′ affecting coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. The probabilities change based on the strength and path of the storm. Watch your local TV forecasts in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for the latest watches and warnings.

-Dawn Brown

Hurricane Watch for Gulf Coast

Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida gained strength last night over the deep well of warm water over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is now a category 1 hurricane with 90 mile an hour winds. It may strengthen briefly again, before weakening over the central Gulf. Hurricane watches have now been posted for coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Click on the link for your state for the latest watches and warnings from your local TV forecaster.

Hurricane Ida, Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

The visible satellite imagery of Ida shows that Ida is experiencing some wind shear to the north and west of the storm. The pool of warm water that has allowed Ida to strengthen once again will start to come to an end once it enters the central Gulf of Mexico. However, with its forward speed, Ida may not have time to substantially weaken before landfall. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Ida to maintain hurricane status for the next 2 days. It’s possible that it will still have hurricane force winds when it is about 110 miles away from Grand Isle, Louisiana. The storm is tightly packed and that may help ease the impact on northern Gulf States.  Currently, Ida is about 60 miles from Cancun, and maximum winds experienced there are about 15 miles per hour. (Source: Weather Underground )

When Ida is about 20 miles south of Gulf Shores, Alabama, maximum sustained winds are expected to be about 70 miles per hour. At that point, it is expected to be making the transition from a tropical hurricane to an extra-tropical storm. During the transition, the storm can expand, and the high winds could affect a larger area.

Coastal tides in Louisiana area expected to be about 5-6 feet above normal Sunday night into Monday.

-Dawn Brown

Ida Strengthens… Cat 1 Hurricane Again

Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Update from the The National Hurricane Center:

1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 …IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY… DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056…LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES…195 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO… RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH…119 KM/HR. THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS… WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH…120 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Ida Track Forecast, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

The track forecast has not changed much over the last 24 hours, with the exception that Ida may retain tropical characteristics until it is near landfall in the panhandle of Florida. Portions of the northern Gulf Coast continue to be under coastal flood watches. Heavy rain will also be a problem as a cold front slams into the approaching tropical air mass. Why does the National Hurricane Center think Ida will weaken in the center of the Gulf of Mexico?

Wind Shear Analysis, Image: University of Wisconsin click to enlarge

Once again, we need to revisit wind shear. Taking a look at this current wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin, the yellow lines in the Gulf of Mexico show us how much wind shear the storm will run into once Ida cross the Yucatan Straits. This map is difficult to read. What you need to know is the current wind shear over the Gulf exceeds 30 knots or about 35 miles per hour. This can be a hostile environment for tropical systems. National Hurricane Center forecasters expect Ida to remain a hurricane for the next two days, let’s see if that occurs.

-Dawn Brown

Hurricane Ida Hits Land… Weakens

Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA

Hurricane Ida Satellite – CURRENT!, Image: NHC, NOAA

The satellite image above is CURRENT! If you want the latest track, click on the Hurricane Tracking link to your left, and click on National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Ida is inland over Nicaragua this morning, hitting the Central American country as a category 1 hurricane overnight with 75 mile per hour winds. Due to land interaction, it has now weakened to a tropical storm, but there is some disagreement on how much it will weaken as it crosses Nicaragua and then Honduras before reemerging in the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center has Ida coming off the tip of Honduras Saturday morning as a tropical depression and then continuing on its north-northwestward path toward the central Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Here’s what NHC forecasters had to say in their discussion this morning:

"... THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND... "

Computer models are definitely bringing the storm or remnants of Ida through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. All eyes will be on Ida as it crosses Central America today and tomorrow. We really have to watch the satellite presentation to get an idea of how healthy or unhealthy the storm is. Land can severely disrupt a storm. However, Ida is not expected to cross an especially mountainous region, which would help disrupt the storm even more, possibly even kill it.

Dr. Jeff Masters has some interesting tidbits on whether Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras in his blog today. You can access his blog by clicking on the link to your left. Also, it’s an old article from 2001, but here’s what USA Today has to say about  November hurricanes. I just checked the years 2002-2008, and we haven’t had a November storm hit the US during that time… so the information is current.

-Dawn Brown