Arlene to Drench Drought Stricken Mexico
The Latin American Herald Tribune is reporting today that Mexico is experiencing its worst drought in 70 years.
Tropical Storm Arlene may alleviate some of the drought, although many mountainous regions may experience flash floods because of the amount of rainfall associated with the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Arlene, Image: NOAA
The satellite presentation became much more impressive in the overnight hours, most likely due to the lack of wind shear in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms started sprouting up in the southern and eastern section of the storm early this morning. It’s possible Arlene could reach just below hurricane strength before making landfall between Tampico and Poza Rico. The topography in this section of Mexico makes it susceptible to flooding rains.
Although Arlene doesn’t have much time to strengthen, it could be just below hurricane strength before making landfall between Tampico and Poza Rica. For complete tropical storm coverage, visit TV stations in coastal towns of Texas like Houston and Corpus Christi.
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans
Love Quiet Mondays
Texas Rainfall (courtesy NWS)
Texas and Louisiana will begin to dry out after a weeks worth of storms dumped more than 10″ of rain in portions of Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. The area of low pressure generating those storms is slowly moving to the Northeast, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still getting hit this Monday. Coastal areas are beginning to see a break, but northern Mississippi and Alabama will be the latest victims of this slow moving system before it finally loses steam.
Grey skies across Southern California as a cold front sweeps through. Although beachgoers may not like it, the cooler temperatures are a welcome weather treat this time of year, at a time when wildfires, driven by Santa Ana winds are fed by the hot temperatures in September and October.
It is a quiet Monday across the country, and silent in the tropics as well. We can ease into the workweek.
For a couple of days now, I’ve been meaning to show you an article I saw on Smart Money magazine online. It’s about the fallacy of the 7-day forecast. The author of the article seems to be “revealing” to people that extended forecasts aren’t very good, but I don’t think any forecaster, including the ones he interviews, argues that they are! Television weathercasters give you the 7-day forecast because the computer models go out 10 days. After about three days, the forecast tends toward climatology. But, sometimes, climatology is correct. What I like about this article is the meteorologists give you the limitations of todays forecasting. What I don’t like about the article is the innuendo that weather forecasters “won’t tell you” the limitations of their forecasting, when he has several meteorologists in the interview giving him the “inside information”. Oh, and the Doppler radar does do a good job during a storm of helping the on-air meteorologist forecast the immediate weather event for the next couple of hours. It also helps the forecaster determine whether a storm is severe, and if the public needs to be warned. Here’s the link to the article:
-Dawn Brown
HURRICANE Fred
Fred strengthened into a major hurricane with 120 mile winds overnight, becoming the second major hurricane of the 2009 season behind Hurricane Bill. However, this storm is not expected to get close the US mainland, instead taking a northerly course to the middle of the Atlantic. Satellite images show a well defined eye, as the storm passes over warm water and low wind shear. Wind shear has played a huge part in the lack of storms this year, as the shear tends to cut of the tops of developing storms. This storm currently has a healthy outflow (all those light wispy clouds moving out away from the storm), and right now, there’s nothing to impede it’s growth. In a day or so, it will move over cooler water and into an area of higher wind shear. At that time, the National Hurricane Center believes it will weaken to a tropical depression in their 5 day forecast. And, I don’t disagree!
Looking at the national weather map, Houston, Texas is getting a good soaking today. Click here for the latest video forecast in Houston.
The TV weather guy there also has an analysis of an area of showers and thunderstorms in the Western Gulf that has the possibility of developing. Something to watch, but there’s nothing there yet!
-Dawn Brown