Happy Veterans Day!
Heavy rain is falling across the Carolinas and portions of the Northeast corridor on this Veterans Day. Here’s the latest National Radar Image.
Thanks to all the veterans who’ve served and the soldiers serving today around the world.
-Dawn Brown
Rick Misses Baja, Rains on Central Plains
3-Day Forecast Track TS Rick, Image: NOAA
Rick has significantly weakened in the last 24-hours, and resort towns in Baja California will not suffer a direct hit. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for the West Coast of Southern Baja California including Cabo San Lucas. Maximum sustained winds are now 65 miles per hour.
Rick's Rains, Image: Unisys Weather
The remnants of Rick will aid in the development of a storm system over the Central Plains. Cold, dry polar air will clash with a warm tropical air mass over the Central and Southern Plains late this week. This computer model image from Unisys Weather shows the possibility of heavy rains and storms late Wednesday through Saturday, and then the Northeast could get hit by a wallop of a storm.
The red arrow on the image shows where the remnants of Rick will be located Thursday morning. Rick’s path, along with an influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will combine to create heavy rain and thunderstorms through the weekend. This second image is the computer model forecast for Friday. You can see the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley will once again bear the brunt of a heavy rain event.
Rick's Rains Friday, Image: Unisys Weather
I’ll have the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center tomorrow.
-Dawn Brown
Heavy Rain Hits Again
Today's National Forecast, Image: NOAA
Enhanced IR Satellite, Image: Unisys Weather
- Long Range Forecast, Image: Unisys Weather
Flash flood warnings are in effect for portions of Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia this morning. The active weather pattern that settled down this past weekend is gearing up again for the workweek. The Southern states, which experienced a one-day cool down, are now expected to heat back up for the next few days.
Stormy Monday Setup
US Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA
It’s a stormy start to the workweek for the Gulf South. A line of heavy rain is soaking the Gulf States, and a broader area of heavy rain is falling across the Mid-Atlantic region. Catch the latest TV forecasts from Savannah, Georgia and New Orleans, LA The ugly weather will start to end from west to east later on today, the Carolinas could still experience some rain showers tomorrow. Meanwhile, a winter storm is still casting its spell on the wild West. Forecasters in Casper, Wyoming say things will get better later on this afternoon.
Tropical Storm Grace is headed to the northeast in the eastern Atlantic The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Grace late last night. Grace is west of Europe. NHC forecasters believe it will begin to weaken later today and a non-tropical low will absorb Grace later tonight or tomorrow.
-Dawn Brown
Floods, High Winds, Quiet in the Tropics!
High wind warnings are in effect for Southern California the next couple of days. Warm temperatures, low humidity and highs winds is a bad combination during fire season. Here’s the latest forecast from Los Angeles.
Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia continue to be hit by flash flooding. Once again, you can click on ABC Birmingham for the very latest in radar reports, warnings and the current weather forecast from the local television affiliate. I also have a link to the NBC Atlanta Forecast where heavy rain continues this Monday.
Oklahoma today is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Watch FOX Oklahoma City later this afternoon for the latest watches and warnings.
The National Hurricane Center continues to predict no tropical development in the next 48 hours. The one tropical wave I was watching, Invest 98L, is showing a little bit more organization this morning. Currently, it’s just an area of showers and thunderstorms out in the middle of the Atlantic. Dry air over the past couple of days has been getting mixed into the area of disturbed weather, and kept it from developing into a tropical system. No matter what, it won’t affect the US. My previous blog has more details on the dry air that’s been affecting Invest 98L.
-Dawn Brown
Invest 98L Looks To Be Named Grace
More than 90,000 fan will pack Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge today for the second LSU home game. Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi have had heavy downpours off and on all week. Currently, Birmingham Alabama has flash flood warnings. Watch Birmingham’s forecast to find out about the heavy rains, and Baton Rouge’s forecast to find out about tailgating at Louisiana State Unversity.
Invest 98L looks like it will develop into Tropical Storm Grace this weekend. Click below to read more!
Love Quiet Mondays
Texas Rainfall (courtesy NWS)
Texas and Louisiana will begin to dry out after a weeks worth of storms dumped more than 10″ of rain in portions of Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. The area of low pressure generating those storms is slowly moving to the Northeast, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still getting hit this Monday. Coastal areas are beginning to see a break, but northern Mississippi and Alabama will be the latest victims of this slow moving system before it finally loses steam.
Grey skies across Southern California as a cold front sweeps through. Although beachgoers may not like it, the cooler temperatures are a welcome weather treat this time of year, at a time when wildfires, driven by Santa Ana winds are fed by the hot temperatures in September and October.
It is a quiet Monday across the country, and silent in the tropics as well. We can ease into the workweek.
For a couple of days now, I’ve been meaning to show you an article I saw on Smart Money magazine online. It’s about the fallacy of the 7-day forecast. The author of the article seems to be “revealing” to people that extended forecasts aren’t very good, but I don’t think any forecaster, including the ones he interviews, argues that they are! Television weathercasters give you the 7-day forecast because the computer models go out 10 days. After about three days, the forecast tends toward climatology. But, sometimes, climatology is correct. What I like about this article is the meteorologists give you the limitations of todays forecasting. What I don’t like about the article is the innuendo that weather forecasters “won’t tell you” the limitations of their forecasting, when he has several meteorologists in the interview giving him the “inside information”. Oh, and the Doppler radar does do a good job during a storm of helping the on-air meteorologist forecast the immediate weather event for the next couple of hours. It also helps the forecaster determine whether a storm is severe, and if the public needs to be warned. Here’s the link to the article:
-Dawn Brown
No End to the Rain for the Gulf South
Texas and Louisiana continue to suffer heavy rain from a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest Gulf South Radar Imagery
The showers and thunderstorms aren’t likely to develop into a tropical system, but flash flood watchings and other weather warnings have been posted because of the large batch of rain that continues to make it’s way onshore. For the latest forecast from your local TV affiliate, click on this link: Get Your Local TV Weather!
While some areas will see a bit of a break for a few hours during the day, expect the chance of rain to continue for the next 5 days. Most computer models show the persistence of disturbed weather off the Texas/Louisiana coastline through the middle of next week.
-Dawn Brown
Soggy Forecast for Both Gulf & East Coasts
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image (courtesy NOAA)
I’m not updating on Hurricane Fred anymore… if you want more information, go to my links under tracking hurricanes, or to the forum pages.
Both the Gulf Coast States and portions of the East Coast are getting pummeled by showers and thunderstorms that will dump heavy rain for the next couple of days. And, the National Hurricane Center is marking both with a low (less than 30%) chance for tropical development. As far as the Gulf Coast rain, it’s mainly being driven along by a mid level storm over Texas. What that means to you is, right now, it’s not tropical. However, it’s a slow moving storm that will dump HEAVY rain over Texas and Louisiana the next couple of days. Most of central Texas is already under Flash Flood Watches. Click on the following link to watch San Antonio’s rainy forecast. (Click on video forecast above the 7-day.)
Those flash flood watches will probably move to the Texas/Louisiana border and then portions of Southeastern Louisiana by the weekend.
In New York and Philadelphia, heavy rain is expected over the next couple of days due to a low pressure system hanging out just off the coast. Here’s a look at the video forecast in Philadelphia. (To see video, scroll down, it will be on the right hand side of the page.) The area of low pressure affecting the East Coast is expected to slowly lift off to the east starting Sunday. They are under flash flood watches as well.
Stay tuned to your local TV station if you live in areas along the Gulf Coast or East Coast for the latest updates. Of course, you can ALWAYS access the latest weather information from my website links here. On the right hand column, scroll down the to the green banner with the headline, “Get Your Local TV Forecast!”. Click on that link below, and you will have access to TV weather forecasts from across the 50 states.
It’s Friday!… I’ll talk to you later… -Dawn