No End to the Rain for the Gulf South
Texas and Louisiana continue to suffer heavy rain from a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest Gulf South Radar Imagery
The showers and thunderstorms aren’t likely to develop into a tropical system, but flash flood watchings and other weather warnings have been posted because of the large batch of rain that continues to make it’s way onshore. For the latest forecast from your local TV affiliate, click on this link: Get Your Local TV Weather!
While some areas will see a bit of a break for a few hours during the day, expect the chance of rain to continue for the next 5 days. Most computer models show the persistence of disturbed weather off the Texas/Louisiana coastline through the middle of next week.
-Dawn Brown
Soggy Forecast for Both Gulf & East Coasts
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image (courtesy NOAA)
I’m not updating on Hurricane Fred anymore… if you want more information, go to my links under tracking hurricanes, or to the forum pages.
Both the Gulf Coast States and portions of the East Coast are getting pummeled by showers and thunderstorms that will dump heavy rain for the next couple of days. And, the National Hurricane Center is marking both with a low (less than 30%) chance for tropical development. As far as the Gulf Coast rain, it’s mainly being driven along by a mid level storm over Texas. What that means to you is, right now, it’s not tropical. However, it’s a slow moving storm that will dump HEAVY rain over Texas and Louisiana the next couple of days. Most of central Texas is already under Flash Flood Watches. Click on the following link to watch San Antonio’s rainy forecast. (Click on video forecast above the 7-day.)
Those flash flood watches will probably move to the Texas/Louisiana border and then portions of Southeastern Louisiana by the weekend.
In New York and Philadelphia, heavy rain is expected over the next couple of days due to a low pressure system hanging out just off the coast. Here’s a look at the video forecast in Philadelphia. (To see video, scroll down, it will be on the right hand side of the page.) The area of low pressure affecting the East Coast is expected to slowly lift off to the east starting Sunday. They are under flash flood watches as well.
Stay tuned to your local TV station if you live in areas along the Gulf Coast or East Coast for the latest updates. Of course, you can ALWAYS access the latest weather information from my website links here. On the right hand column, scroll down the to the green banner with the headline, “Get Your Local TV Forecast!”. Click on that link below, and you will have access to TV weather forecasts from across the 50 states.
It’s Friday!… I’ll talk to you later… -Dawn
Watching the Gulf… Heavy Rain Expected
Heavy Rain Moving to Texas/Louisiana
The National Hurricane Center has now noted that area in the western Gulf of Mexico with the potential for development. Currently it has a less than 30% chance of development in the next two days. The NHC gives tropical waves and disturbed weather either a low, medium or high chance for development. Over the next few days it’s going to encounter some high wind shear as it remains stationary in the western Gulf. Both Texas and Louisiana are expected to see some high rainfall numbers even if the showers and thunderstorms remain unorganized.
Just because I’ve tracked down all the links to all the TV stations across the US, let’s take a sneak peek at what folks in Corpus Christiare saying about this area of showers and storms! By the way, the link takes you to the weather page, then look for the box that says video forecast. On this website, scroll down past the 7-day forecast.
If you want to see what the global computer models have to say, follow my link for Tracking Hurricanes.
Talk to you tomorrow… Dawn Brown
P.S… I’m not really following Fred anymore. He’s losing steam, and will decay in the next couple of days. Plus, he’s way the heck out in the Eastern Atlantic!
Fred On a Downward Spiral… Heavy Rain in the Gulf
Fred Satellite Image ( Courtesy NOAA)
Hurricane Fred has now weakened to a category 2 hurricane, and will further weaken in the next few days. Yesterday, I was talking about the wind shear the storm was headed into, and it has already weakened the southern portion of the storm. The storm was never a threat to the US mainland, but now it looks like it will decay faster than expected.
There is a lot of curiosity about some showers and thunderstorms in the western Gulf of Mexico. In the next couple of days, watchful eyes across the Gulf will be on this area of rain and thunderstorms to see if a low level circulation develops. Watch this forecaster from Houston on the developing low.
No matter if it becomes tropical or not, Texas and Louisiana will get soaked Saturday into Sunday. Ever since Humberto and Claudette’s rapid development in the Gulf, forecasters keep a close eye on these persistent areas of showers and thunderstorms so we’re not caught off guard if it develops into a tropical system, especially since it’s so close to land. In the Gulf of Mexico there’s plenty of warm water, so if a low does develop, it can rapidly. At the same time, the computer models don’t have a great handle on this system.
If you really want a techy explanation of the different computer model solutions, check out Crown Weather’s blog today.
Also, both Max Mayfield, former NHC director, and Jeff Masters from Weather Underground have some interesting statistics on this year’s hurricane season if you want to check out their blogs.
I’ll talk to you later!
-Dawn Brown
Tropical Storm Fred
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Fred is on the verge of hurricane status, and may increase in intensity overnight. Reliable computer models continue to keep it in the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US mainland, and at some point degenerating in the 5-day forecast.
Tropical Storm Fred is currently in a healthy environment for growth, and may end up being the next major hurricane of the 2009 season in the next couple of days. Upper air steering currents are expected to keep the storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean Basin well away from the United States. This year, upper level troughs traveling across the continental United States have dominated the tropical weather pattern on the East Coast, forcing these storms on a more northerly path once the storm comes close to the US mainland. Most of the models agree on this track for Fred. Click here to track Fred.
While we like to see these upper level troughs send these storms to the middle of the Atlantic, there is another variable that these troughs and associate cold fronts produce. Once the tail end of the cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast, often the front stalls and a circulation can develop along the decaying front. This circulation can allow a tropical system to develop. At this time of year, when a cold front stalls over the Gulf or Atlantic near the coastline, meteorologists watch it closely for possible development. At least one model suggests this may happen in the Western Gulf of Mexico in the next 10 days. We will be watching for that. If you are interested in discussing Fred, check out the MYL Forums.
Also, I have Jeff Masters Weather Undergound blog in my left hand menu bar under HURRICANE BLOGS. In the next few weeks, he’s introducing a series of blogs on storm surge. Storm surge has been one of the least understood components of a hurricane’s landfall, but it can be the most destructive component along the Gulf of Mexico. More and more researchers are trying to introduce computer models to give viewers an idea of how storm surge will effect their community during a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge is very localized, meaning the impact is different depending on the terrain where you live. Last year, during Hurricane Gustav, meteorologist Mike Koziara at the National Weather Service in New Orleans briefed me on the storm surge model they run. Koziara explained that terrain factors such as railroads, levees, canals, and the coastline underwater were all included in the storm surge model. If the storm moves 100 miles to the east or west, this model won’t work, because the terrain is completely different. So, it is an exciting prospect that researchers are tackling this aspect of forecasting a landfalling hurricane.
I just got back from a dive trip on San Clemente island in California. What a great experience! Since Fred is alive and well in the Atlantic, I’ll have another update later tonight.
-Dawn Brown
Tips for the Gulf South TV Forecaster
Moving to a new TV market is tough. I’m putting together some of the most important websites you’ll need to hit the ground running. Good Luck! Since the Gulf South is driven in a large part by the tropics during the summertime, you will have many days of frustation before you begin to learn the patterns and the different small scale boundaries that can develop. Severe weather develops rapidly, especially in the fall, winter and spring. Even a summertime thunderstorm can cause flooding in the streets. Of course snow is not a common occurence, but if you get all the right ingredients, you will have a miracle snow day during a cold winter.
Looking at the radar and satellite, (if your shop doesn’t have what you need, go to the National Weather Service Eastern Region Headquarters and Aviation Weather) to get a general idea of the weather pattern.
Use your synoptic scale models (large scale models) to get storm placement, flow patterns, and 850 mb temperatures, and precipitation amounts (this is available at Unisys Weather), and make a short-term forecast. Look at atmospheric forecast soundings site, especially if thunderstorms are expected, to determine severity. Make sure you visit the Storm Prediction Center to see if you are in a risk category for thunderstorms.
Generally, your local NWS office can give you the risk of inland flooding due to repeated storms, but here’s a link to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center – Inland Flooding in case that is a concern during repeated storm events or a tropical storm has moved inland.
Tides are extremely important for coastal communities, here’s a link to Tide Predictions for Gulf States. Marine and boating forecasters also generally use buoy data. NOAA Buoys Gulf of Mexico
Make an extended 7-day forecast using the latest and most complete suite of extended model runs (e.g. the GFS), available at NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts.
Also, you’ll need a temperature forecast to compare all of your graphical data against for a highs/lows forecast. The best place to find MOS (Model Output Statistics) is Current NWS MOS Forecast Products.
When it comes to tropical weather, which can also often be a player, things can get even more interesting, here’s a link to my blog on Tracking Hurricanes.
Oh! One added note, sea fog can develop in the wintertime along the Gulf South. The NWS Office in New Orleans has a decision tree Sea Fog Forecasting to help you forecast a sea fog event in the wintertime. It’s fascinating!