Severe Weather Hits Florida

National Radar Image, Image: NOAA (Image is OLD!)

Click for that latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Click here for the latest radar imagery. Picture above is old.

Tornado watches are in effect for the panhandle of Florida and Southern Georgia. TV forecasters in Panama City, Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Florida are experiencing heavy rain. A tornado watch also means there is the possibility of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

This same storm system will be tracking up the Carolinas into the Northeast over the next several days. Cold artic air will be funneled into the deep South by Friday, where forecasters as far south as Mississippi are currently predicting the possibility of light snow.

-Dawn Brown

Wind Shear is Ripping Ida Apart

Ida Weakens, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Ida is looking pretty ragged this morning as wind shear over the Gulf Coast is starting to tear the storm apart.

Hurricane Ida’s winds are down to 80 miles an hour. 30 knots or 35 mile per hour wind shear is tearing the storm apart. National Hurricane Center forecasters still forecast a hurricane at landfall, but I think that’s generous to say the storm will maintain these winds over the next 24 hours. I think heavy rain and possibly up to 60 mile per hour winds at landfall are what Gulf Coast residents can expect out of this storm. The tropical storm force winds will be relegated to the Alabama/Florida border.

Hurricane watches and warnings remain for the northern Gulf Coast. For the latest watches and warnings, go to GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! on the right hand side of this page. It is the last green tab on the right. You can watch forecasters from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida forecasting this storm!

Ida Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

-Dawn Brown

Ida Advances as a Cat 2 Hurricane

Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida is advancing toward the northern Gulf Coast as a category 2 hurricane this Sunday with maximum winds up to 105 miles per hour. In their discussion National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate the satellite presentation of the eye is looking a little more ragged this Sunday evening. The wind shear in this part of the Gulf of Mexico is about 30 knots, or about 35 miles per hour.

The southwesterly shear is expected to slightly weaken the storm as it continues its northerly course. Click here for the latest wind shear image.

The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Ida to remain a hurricane for the next 36 hours, making landfall as a possibly category 1 hurricane near the Alabama/Florida border. It is expected to make a transition to a winter-type cyclone when it collides with a cold front that is currently crossing the central United States. Current computer model forecasts suggest Ida may be forced on a more easterly track because of this oncoming front. (Go to the Hurricane Tracking link to your left.) By Monday morning, Ida’s fate and its impact on the Gulf Coast will become more apparent. Overnight, we’ll know how Ida is handling the increased wind shear and the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. As I say this, the computer models have done a pretty good job of forecasting Ida’s re-strengthening in the Caribbean and Gulf, and they continue to forecast a storm with hurricane force winds at landfall.

Storm Surge Modeling from the National Hurricane Center gives coastal residents an idea of the probability of being affected by storm surge and higher than average tides. When you are looking at the map, zoom into your area. Then, choose probability of storm surge either above 2′, 3′, 4′… etc. Then click on the button, “Load Data”.

Currently, there is a 5-10 % probability of storm surge above 6′ affecting coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. The probabilities change based on the strength and path of the storm. Watch your local TV forecasts in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for the latest watches and warnings.

-Dawn Brown

Ida Still Weak, Heads Toward Gulf

Ida Heads Toward Gulf: Image, NOAA (click to enlarge)

This is a current satellite image of Tropical Depression Ida, which is still spinning on the coastal plains of the Nicaraguan/Honduran border (It is still inland-will move over the western Caribbean Sea later today.) For the last 24-hours, computer models continue to develop Ida back into a tropical storm or minimal hurricane and send it into the Gulf of Mexico.

That is where the forecast gets a little tricky. At this time of year, strong winds over the southern portion of the United States could either send Ida on a fast track toward Florida (possibly as a minimal hurricane), or tear the storm apart in the middle of the Gulf. Wind shear in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico right now is about 45-90 miles per hour. Tropical systems don’t like wind shear greater than about 20 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center is going with more typical thinking for the weather patterns at  this time of year. Forecasters there believe the storm will transition from a tropical storm into a winter-type low pressure system somewhere in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, and head toward Florida (possibly) as a heavy rainmaker.

Computer Model - Ida Tuesday, Image: Unisys Weather

This computer model image shows the storm pattern across the United States. (The color contours show areas of stronger winds and colder air–the blues and greens.) What is important for you to note about this image is where Ida is located on this model on Tuesday. It is just north of Cuba. Now, let’s take a look at the computer model image from Wednesday.

Computer Model - Ida Wednesday, Image: Unisys Weather

In this image, Ida has weakened, and the steering currents aren’t letting it move closer to the northern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the steering currents aren’t letting the storm move much at all. That’s why I say the forecast gets a little tricky when the storm tries to get into the Gulf of Mexico, and why forecasters say things like Ida will be “stranded” once it gets into the Gulf. It’s because the upper level steering currents won’t let it move closer to the United States. This is why the spaghetti plot lines go straight north for the next 5 days, and then they bend BACK toward the South.

Ida Spaghetti Plots, Image: Weather Underground

These spaghetti plots from Weather Underground tell the story. For the latest track forecast on Ida, please go to my Hurricane Tracking links to your left.

Dr. Jeff Masters has some thoughts in his blog today on why Ida will strengthen in the western Caribbean Sea, despite some pretty good wind shear, because of the large amount of warm water. Also, I’d be interested to see what Max Mayfield, (former director of the National Hurricane Center), has to say about Ida in his blog later today, since he’s still based out of Miami.  Check out their hurricane blogs to your left.

Meanwhile, have you checked out the heavy rain forecast for the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Tropical moisture will be heading toward the northern Gulf ahead of Ida for Sunday through Tuesday.

-Dawn Brown