Love Quiet Mondays
Texas Rainfall (courtesy NWS)
Texas and Louisiana will begin to dry out after a weeks worth of storms dumped more than 10″ of rain in portions of Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. The area of low pressure generating those storms is slowly moving to the Northeast, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still getting hit this Monday. Coastal areas are beginning to see a break, but northern Mississippi and Alabama will be the latest victims of this slow moving system before it finally loses steam.
Grey skies across Southern California as a cold front sweeps through. Although beachgoers may not like it, the cooler temperatures are a welcome weather treat this time of year, at a time when wildfires, driven by Santa Ana winds are fed by the hot temperatures in September and October.
It is a quiet Monday across the country, and silent in the tropics as well. We can ease into the workweek.
For a couple of days now, I’ve been meaning to show you an article I saw on Smart Money magazine online. It’s about the fallacy of the 7-day forecast. The author of the article seems to be “revealing” to people that extended forecasts aren’t very good, but I don’t think any forecaster, including the ones he interviews, argues that they are! Television weathercasters give you the 7-day forecast because the computer models go out 10 days. After about three days, the forecast tends toward climatology. But, sometimes, climatology is correct. What I like about this article is the meteorologists give you the limitations of todays forecasting. What I don’t like about the article is the innuendo that weather forecasters “won’t tell you” the limitations of their forecasting, when he has several meteorologists in the interview giving him the “inside information”. Oh, and the Doppler radar does do a good job during a storm of helping the on-air meteorologist forecast the immediate weather event for the next couple of hours. It also helps the forecaster determine whether a storm is severe, and if the public needs to be warned. Here’s the link to the article:
-Dawn Brown
No End to the Rain for the Gulf South
Texas and Louisiana continue to suffer heavy rain from a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest Gulf South Radar Imagery
The showers and thunderstorms aren’t likely to develop into a tropical system, but flash flood watchings and other weather warnings have been posted because of the large batch of rain that continues to make it’s way onshore. For the latest forecast from your local TV affiliate, click on this link: Get Your Local TV Weather!
While some areas will see a bit of a break for a few hours during the day, expect the chance of rain to continue for the next 5 days. Most computer models show the persistence of disturbed weather off the Texas/Louisiana coastline through the middle of next week.
-Dawn Brown
The Climate Data! How to Find the Highs/Lows/Rain Totals!
It’s usually at the breakfast table… or on the way out the door that you find your child hasn’t completed a very important homework assignment. It’s not difficult, it doesn’t involve a lot of math, but finding the climate data for the current or previous day can be difficult if you don’t know where to look.
Every National Weather Service Office across the country lists the high temperature, low temperature and rain/precipitation totals for the day after about 5pm. The high temperature of the day is usually reached between 12 and 5pm unless you had a weather event come through that day. I’m going to go through it step-by-step. And, then, I will have an example search to show you how I found the high/low and rain near Houma, Louisiana. FYI… the National Weather Service only has a certain number of weather observation stations across the United States, so you will be finding the climate data of a station near you, most likely not the town where you live.
The first thing you want to do is go to the National Weather Service main site. Here is the link: www.nws.noaa.gov.
Then follow these steps:
- Type the name of your town and the state in the small box near the upper left hand corner of your screen. (It says Local Forecast by “City,St” above the box. To show you an example, I’m typing in Houma, Louisiana.)
- Hit the Go tab to the right of the box after entering the name of your town and state.
- You will be taken to a forecast screen where it will list the current conditions in your town as well as any weather hazards, and the forecast. (This is the page I was linked to for Houma.)
- This step is very important! You need to find the link that will take you to the local NWS Office near your town. On the left hand side, just below the NOAA emblem or sign, it will say NWS and the name of the local National Weather Service office. The writing should be in blue. Click on that link. (If you look at my example page, it says NWS for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA.)
- That will take you to the MAIN PAGE of the National Weather Service office in your region. (Again, here’s the link to the page in my example: NWS for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA)
- On the left hand column, scroll down to the word Climate, below the word climate, it will say local. Click on the word Local. (Example: It should look like this. )
- In the middle of the page, you will see a blue bar, with the words Observed Weather Reports.
- Below this, you find a series of selections.
- First, select Daily Climate Report.
- Move over to the next column.
- Select the National Weather Service Office closest to you.
- Go to the next or third column. If it’s 7 o’clock at night, and your trying to find the data for today, then you just need to leave “Most Recent” selected and hit Go.
- If you are trying to find the highs/lows and rain for a previous day, you need to select Archived Data, and select the date you need. Then hit Go.
A new window will open. It should look like the page below: (The information you want is underlined and in red.)
-Dawn Brown
____________________________________________________________________
These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
Climatological Report (Daily)
000
CDUS44 KLIX 112119
CLINEW
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
418 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009
...................................
...THE NEW ORLEANS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 11 2009...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1946 TO 2009
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 80 1106 AM 98 1980 88 -8 90
MINIMUM 73 127 PM 57 1969 72 1 75
AVERAGE 77 80 -3 83
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 2.28 5.64 1998 0.20 2.08 0.32
MONTH TO DATE 4.30 2.28 2.02 6.32
SINCE SEP 1 4.30 2.28 2.02 6.32
SINCE JAN 1 41.48 47.68 -6.20 43.40
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0
SINCE SEP 1 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 0.0
SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0
COOLING
TODAY 12 15 -3 18
MONTH TO DATE 176 172 4 184
SINCE SEP 1 176 172 4 184
SINCE JAN 1 2620 2259 361 2508
..................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 30 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SE (130)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 43 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (120)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.9
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM
HEAVY RAIN
RAIN
LIGHT RAIN
FOG
HAZE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 88 100 AM
LOWEST 79 1000 AM
AVERAGE 84
..........................................................
THE NEW ORLEANS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 88 94 1991
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 72 57 1969
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 11 2009.....SUNRISE 644 AM CDT SUNSET 711 PM CDT
SEPTEMBER 12 2009.....SUNRISE 644 AM CDT SUNSET 710 PM CDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
Soggy Forecast for Both Gulf & East Coasts
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image (courtesy NOAA)
I’m not updating on Hurricane Fred anymore… if you want more information, go to my links under tracking hurricanes, or to the forum pages.
Both the Gulf Coast States and portions of the East Coast are getting pummeled by showers and thunderstorms that will dump heavy rain for the next couple of days. And, the National Hurricane Center is marking both with a low (less than 30%) chance for tropical development. As far as the Gulf Coast rain, it’s mainly being driven along by a mid level storm over Texas. What that means to you is, right now, it’s not tropical. However, it’s a slow moving storm that will dump HEAVY rain over Texas and Louisiana the next couple of days. Most of central Texas is already under Flash Flood Watches. Click on the following link to watch San Antonio’s rainy forecast. (Click on video forecast above the 7-day.)
Those flash flood watches will probably move to the Texas/Louisiana border and then portions of Southeastern Louisiana by the weekend.
In New York and Philadelphia, heavy rain is expected over the next couple of days due to a low pressure system hanging out just off the coast. Here’s a look at the video forecast in Philadelphia. (To see video, scroll down, it will be on the right hand side of the page.) The area of low pressure affecting the East Coast is expected to slowly lift off to the east starting Sunday. They are under flash flood watches as well.
Stay tuned to your local TV station if you live in areas along the Gulf Coast or East Coast for the latest updates. Of course, you can ALWAYS access the latest weather information from my website links here. On the right hand column, scroll down the to the green banner with the headline, “Get Your Local TV Forecast!”. Click on that link below, and you will have access to TV weather forecasts from across the 50 states.
It’s Friday!… I’ll talk to you later… -Dawn
Fred On a Downward Spiral… Heavy Rain in the Gulf
Fred Satellite Image ( Courtesy NOAA)
Hurricane Fred has now weakened to a category 2 hurricane, and will further weaken in the next few days. Yesterday, I was talking about the wind shear the storm was headed into, and it has already weakened the southern portion of the storm. The storm was never a threat to the US mainland, but now it looks like it will decay faster than expected.
There is a lot of curiosity about some showers and thunderstorms in the western Gulf of Mexico. In the next couple of days, watchful eyes across the Gulf will be on this area of rain and thunderstorms to see if a low level circulation develops. Watch this forecaster from Houston on the developing low.
No matter if it becomes tropical or not, Texas and Louisiana will get soaked Saturday into Sunday. Ever since Humberto and Claudette’s rapid development in the Gulf, forecasters keep a close eye on these persistent areas of showers and thunderstorms so we’re not caught off guard if it develops into a tropical system, especially since it’s so close to land. In the Gulf of Mexico there’s plenty of warm water, so if a low does develop, it can rapidly. At the same time, the computer models don’t have a great handle on this system.
If you really want a techy explanation of the different computer model solutions, check out Crown Weather’s blog today.
Also, both Max Mayfield, former NHC director, and Jeff Masters from Weather Underground have some interesting statistics on this year’s hurricane season if you want to check out their blogs.
I’ll talk to you later!
-Dawn Brown
HURRICANE Fred
Fred strengthened into a major hurricane with 120 mile winds overnight, becoming the second major hurricane of the 2009 season behind Hurricane Bill. However, this storm is not expected to get close the US mainland, instead taking a northerly course to the middle of the Atlantic. Satellite images show a well defined eye, as the storm passes over warm water and low wind shear. Wind shear has played a huge part in the lack of storms this year, as the shear tends to cut of the tops of developing storms. This storm currently has a healthy outflow (all those light wispy clouds moving out away from the storm), and right now, there’s nothing to impede it’s growth. In a day or so, it will move over cooler water and into an area of higher wind shear. At that time, the National Hurricane Center believes it will weaken to a tropical depression in their 5 day forecast. And, I don’t disagree!
Looking at the national weather map, Houston, Texas is getting a good soaking today. Click here for the latest video forecast in Houston.
The TV weather guy there also has an analysis of an area of showers and thunderstorms in the Western Gulf that has the possibility of developing. Something to watch, but there’s nothing there yet!
-Dawn Brown
Tropical Storm Fred
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Fred is on the verge of hurricane status, and may increase in intensity overnight. Reliable computer models continue to keep it in the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US mainland, and at some point degenerating in the 5-day forecast.
Tropical Storm Fred is currently in a healthy environment for growth, and may end up being the next major hurricane of the 2009 season in the next couple of days. Upper air steering currents are expected to keep the storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean Basin well away from the United States. This year, upper level troughs traveling across the continental United States have dominated the tropical weather pattern on the East Coast, forcing these storms on a more northerly path once the storm comes close to the US mainland. Most of the models agree on this track for Fred. Click here to track Fred.
While we like to see these upper level troughs send these storms to the middle of the Atlantic, there is another variable that these troughs and associate cold fronts produce. Once the tail end of the cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast, often the front stalls and a circulation can develop along the decaying front. This circulation can allow a tropical system to develop. At this time of year, when a cold front stalls over the Gulf or Atlantic near the coastline, meteorologists watch it closely for possible development. At least one model suggests this may happen in the Western Gulf of Mexico in the next 10 days. We will be watching for that. If you are interested in discussing Fred, check out the MYL Forums.
Also, I have Jeff Masters Weather Undergound blog in my left hand menu bar under HURRICANE BLOGS. In the next few weeks, he’s introducing a series of blogs on storm surge. Storm surge has been one of the least understood components of a hurricane’s landfall, but it can be the most destructive component along the Gulf of Mexico. More and more researchers are trying to introduce computer models to give viewers an idea of how storm surge will effect their community during a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge is very localized, meaning the impact is different depending on the terrain where you live. Last year, during Hurricane Gustav, meteorologist Mike Koziara at the National Weather Service in New Orleans briefed me on the storm surge model they run. Koziara explained that terrain factors such as railroads, levees, canals, and the coastline underwater were all included in the storm surge model. If the storm moves 100 miles to the east or west, this model won’t work, because the terrain is completely different. So, it is an exciting prospect that researchers are tackling this aspect of forecasting a landfalling hurricane.
I just got back from a dive trip on San Clemente island in California. What a great experience! Since Fred is alive and well in the Atlantic, I’ll have another update later tonight.
-Dawn Brown
Quiet Weekend… The Coolest Feature On My Site (I think… scroll down)
Quick Update: The low level circulation has disappeared on the East Coast, and now the only concern for NHC forecasters is the wave off the coast of Africa. Long term models do not bring it close to the US.
The tropics are quiet, the wildfires in California are no longer threatening homes and about 50% contained, and we are entering what is supposed to be the busiest part of hurricane season. This is a great Labor Day Weekend.
Taking a look at the infrared satellite imagery (courtesy NOAA) off the coast of Africa, there is one area of disturbed weather the National Hurricane Center has deemed 95L, but it doesn’t look to develop. (The forums are active with chatter, so check out MYL Forums to get in on the discussion.) There’s a second tropical wave right on the coast (see the blow up of reds and yellows right near the coastline?). Computer models have this wave developing in the long term outlook, but then turning north in the middle of the Atlantic. As I say this, computer models have huge problems with forecasting not only a storm’s development, but it’s intensity, especially if the storm hasn’t formed a low level circulation.
Meanwhile, take a little time to get to know myweatherlady.com. In the navigation bar above, there is a section about me, my bookmark links (I save my bookmarks at a website called delicious.com. Not all of my web links are there yet, but it will have a complete list of all the weather websites I use eventually.) Just to the right of the bookmarks, I have contact info. Currently, the only way to contact me is through this website or at my email: dawn@myweatherlady.com.
On the left hand side, there is a list of all my blogs organized by categories. Currently, the categories I have are HOME (listing all the blogs), FORECAST TODAY! (to help forecasters who move around the country adjust to their new gig), FORUMS, and TV WEATHER (my blogging about the business of TV Weather, etc.). I want to add a category for KIDS as well as for Freqently Asked Questions. I’m working on those as well as continuing to add links and blogs to the categories I just listed. Below the categories, you will find links to the best hurricane blogs from around the country (My favorites are Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, and Surfline.com forecasters–but all are extremely valuable so you don’t miss something in your forecasting), as well as other weather bloggers below that.
Meanwhile, on the right hand side, you can keep up with me through twitter, check out the latest comments on my website, go visit my t-shirt shop(there’s stuff for kids, pets and people there). Scroll down to the GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! link. I think this is the COOLEST feature on my website. When you go to this link, you will find a list of all the TV stations across the country listed by state and town. Click on the town you live in or the town you are visiting, and you will find the local weather guy or gal giving the forecast. I love it! Check out David Bernard at the CBS in Miami, Jackie Johnson at KCAL in LA, or Steven Douglas in Fairbanks, Alaska. (I just randomly chose him.)
I will be gone for the next 36 hours on a scuba diving trip, so I will not update on Monday. To track hurricanes while I’m gone, visit the hurricane blogs, or go to the weblinks I’ve set up under Tracking Hurricanes.
-Dawn Brown
TV Forecasting in the Bay Area
If you go to my t-shirt shop, you’ll see a couple of shirts I made to represent San Francisco weather. My niece loves “The Horror! The Fog!”, because if you’re on the inland side of the coastal ranges, and you start to see the fog roll in, it can feel like a winter snow storm hitting on a summer day. San Francisco experiences heavy rains, thunderstorms, even snow on nearby mountaintops. During the summertime, forecasting high temperatures can be extremely difficult. You can forecast a high of 80 degrees, and the marine layer will move in, and your forecast high will be blown by 15 degrees! My friend Billy Poon, meteorologist at KPIX in San Francisco, helped me with this blog.
NWS Office San Francisco/Monterey Bay (I use this to check out the weather changes in the last 24 hours, surface pressure very important for forecasting shifts in winds. Wind shifts are not only important for marine forecasts in the Pacific and San Francisco Bay, but for fog forecasting as well.)
Weather Underground Bay Area Weather Sites (This map from Weather Underground shows all the personal weather stations available, much more than the local National Weather Service Office provides. Each station has a record of weather information.)
Unisys Weather Upper Air Models (Place I go to start on my 7-day forecast.)
GFS MOS Guidance (GFS MOS forecast guidance for temperatures around the Bay.)
NAM MOS Guidance (NAM MOS forecast guidance for temperatures.)
Raw FOUS Data (The FOUS… Billy uses this to check out the Relative Humidity at 3 levels, for Low, Mid & Highs clouds & rainfall over 60 hours.)
NWS San Francisco/Monterey Bay Weather Tables (This is a clickable map that will show 7-day model based weather forecast.)
Air Quality (Check the air quality for the day—big concern in the summertime.)
Airport Delays (Check for airport delays, especially San Francisco!)
Rainfall Forecast (Rainfall forecast broken down over 3 days, very fine detail. Billy says it’s a great tool during rainy season.)
California Department of Transportation – Road Conditions (Knowing the actual road conditions, can help you determine if you blew the rain/snow elevation on the roads leading up to Lake Tahoe!)
USGS Earthquake Map (And, of course in California, you will need this earthquake map from the USGS.)
Thanks Billy!
-Dawn Brown, Billy Poon, KPIX Meteorologist
What is the job of a television meteorologist?
The Magic of TV! Photo Courtesy Chris Meydrich
I’ll get to the picture in just a second. But, first, the job of a TV weather person depends on where you work. Some stations don’t even require that you are a meteorologist. They just want you to be able to communicate the weather forecast in a way that’s easy to understand, so the public knows what the weather will be like when they walk out the door. While the National Weather Service is the government agency in charge of forecasting the weather and issuing warnings when your life or property is threatened, they communicate those warnings through television stations. In places like New Orleans, most television stations require the weather person to have a degree in meteorology. Severe weather, in the form of flash flooding, damaging winds, or hail, can develop rapidly along the Gulf South. When I’m looking at a developing storm on radar, I have the ability to determine whether it has certain features that indicate the possibility of damaging winds, or even a tornado. Because weather conditions change so rapidly, TV weather people often stay up all night watching the weather, in case a thunderstorm becomes severe. (A yoga mat on the floor is very comfortable during an all-nighter.) The other fact that people are surprised about is that we make up our own forecasts. That’s why every station has a different forecast. We check the global computer models four times a day, and adjust our forecasts with the changing weather conditions (what’s going on outside), and what the computer models are showing us as well. It’s up to the experience of the individual meteorologist to look at the developing weather outside as well as use the most accurate computer model to produce the forecast. That’s a lot of mumbo jumbo to say it’s a takes a lot of work and experience to make a daily forecast, and it’s a new challenge every day. (My next blog answers the question: What is a computer weather model, and how do forecasters use them?) Most television meteorologists make their own computer graphics, put on their own makeup, choose their own clothes, and then go on TV! (Not as glamorous as it looks to most people I guess.)
Okay… so to the “green screen”! In the picture above, I am standing in front of the weather wall, (probably putting on my microphone.) When we are giving our forecasts, the screen in back of us is green. Through the magic of TV, the maps of the United States are made to look like they are on the wall behind us, even though they are just projected onto your television set, with the meteorologist in front. When it looks like we are turning toward the wall and pointing, we are actually looking at television monitors on each side of us, and in front of us. Stay tuned for more insider weather info… until next time!