Weak Tropical Storm Arlene on Track for Mexico
Tropical Storm Arlene, Image: NOAA
The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene at 7pm Central Daylight Time this Tuesday, June 28th. The storm’s satellite presentation isn’t all that impressive, but it’s kicking up some good wave heights in the central Gulf of Mexico (up to 12′). The area of showers and thunderstorms west of the Yucatan Peninsula has been fairly persistent over the last few days and observations near the center of the storms show maximum sustained winds of about 40 miles per hour.
Arlene is expected to make landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico sometime on Thursday. It could provide some heavy rainfall for Tampico, Ciudad Valle and San Luis de La Paz Mexico. This is a mountainous region of central Mexico and tropical storms can dump copious amounts of rain over this region.
For the latest statistics on Arlene, go to the National Hurricane Center website. This is expected to be a fairly active hurricane season.
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans
Ski ’til July 4th! Watch Yosemite Fall!
Reporting on the record snowfall across the western United States convinced me to plan a last minute trip to Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort in early June. I recruited my husband, fellow meteorologist Jonathan Myers, to venture west with me, to take advantage of the late season snow! We ended up flying into San Francisco, (where my sister lives), and had to drive the looooong way around to get to Mammoth because all of the Sierra Nevada mountain passes were closed (due to the record snow). You know how something that seems likes it’s going to be a huge hassle turns out to be a big blessing? That’s the way our trip went. My Mom convinced us to go to Yosemite National Park to see how the record snowfall and melt had enhanced the waterfalls in the park. Yosemite is not that far from San Francisco-about 4-5 hours. We booked a tent/cabin in Camp Curry and drove over.
Camp Curry, Yosemite National Park
This is a picture of our cabin/tent. They have heated cabins, but since we booked at the last minute, we bundled up with wools blankets and sleeping bags with overnight temperatures in the 30s. At about 4am, I started asking if we could just get up and go hiking since I was freezing. Everybody finally got up at about 5:15am and we were on the trail to Vernal Falls by 6.
Vernal Falls, Yosemite National Park
The hike to Vernal Falls is only about 3 miles round trip. In fact, by 6:40, we only had .3 miles until we got to the top. That’s about 17-18 hundred feet, right? My Mom and I had a little optimistic mid-hike meeting, saying we should go on to Nevada Falls, which is 5-6 miles round trip since we were making such good time. Yeah, no. The last .3 miles is straight up, stairs, with a mist coming off the falls that soaks you from head to foot. You’d be shivering if you weren’t sweating so much from the hike. Don’t get me wrong. It was beautiful, inspiring, something I’m so glad we did. But, it was not an easy 1.6 mile hike. We did continue about a 1/2 mile more to get this beautiful sunrise shot of Nevada Falls.
Nevada Falls Sunrise, Yosemite National Park
If I were to do Vernal Falls and/or Nevada Falls again, I would recommend carrying a poncho, water, and snacks! A peanut butter and jelly sandwich with a little coffee would have tasted so good as we watched this sunrise! We were very happy that we got on the trail so early. When we were hiking downhill at 8am, there was a line of summer hikers headed up. It’s punishing to get up before the sun comes up to hike, but it’s worth it when there’s nobody on the trail and you get the sunrise views.
Later, we drove around and looked at some of the other waterfalls, including the famous Yosemite Falls which is the tallest waterfall in the United States. The snowfall over the Sierra this year is 178% of normal, and the output from Yosemite Falls at the time of this picture was 1600 cubic feet per second. It was beautiful.
Yosemite Falls, Yosemite National Park
When we left Yosemite, we had to head back toward the west, then north and then east again because the mountain pass east from Yosemite was closed. If Tioga Pass (Highway 120) had been open, it would have taken us 2-3 hours to get to Mammoth. Instead, it took about 10 hours!!! Thank goodness the views were amazing. As I’m writing this, I’m disappointed we didn’t capture the shot as we rounded the bend on U.S. Highway 50 into South Lake Tahoe and saw the incredible view of the lake, the glacier mountains and the valley floor. It was a very steep mountain pass and there was nowhere to pull over!
As we drove toward South Lake Tahoe, we saw a roadside construction sign that said Monitor Pass was open, so we headed over Highway 89 toward US 395 that would take us into Mammoth. Highway 89 is a remote highway that takes you through Markleeville, California. More windy roads without guard rails, more incredible, once-in-a-lifetime vistas. There is a bike ride that goes over these mountain passes in the summertime called the Death Ride.
We spent two days in Mammoth. Spring skiing is always a good trip because there are less people on the mountain and it’s warmer. The ski conditions were also remarkable for the time of year. The mountain is open daily until July 4th.
On the way back, we found out Caltrans had just cleared Highway 108 or Sonora Pass. A long and windy trail over the Sierra Nevada Mountain range, it passes US military training camps and freshwater rivers filled with recent snowmelt. The top of the pass still had 10-15′ of snow. Incredible.
Sonora Pass, 9,624'
We ran into a German couple right by this sign, we had both stopped to get pictures of the snow. Luckily, we made it to this sign just before darkness fell. It was still a long drive to the bottom of the mountain and the lights of the interstate.
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans
2011 Hurricane Season Begins
The National Hurricane Center is currently watching two areas in the Atlantic for the possibility of development into a tropical system.
Gulf of Mexico Disturbance, IR Imagery, NOAA
The infrared image above shows the area of showers and thunderstorms from the system in the Gulf of Mexico. A line of heavy thunderstorms rolled through Tampa earlier today associated with that disturbance. Both have a 10% chance for development. There is the possibility this area of showers and thunderstorms could strengthen over the central Gulf of Mexico before quickly weakening because of the amount of wind shear in the western Gulf.
Wind Shear, Gulf of Mexico, Image: University of Wisconsin
The GFS or global forecast system model (which has its own Facebook page) has been developing the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea since the beginning of the week.
Last year, the GFS did a fairly good job of showing areas of possible development at the far end of the forecast cycle. For example, the GFS model run goes out 15 days in the future. Last year, most of the systems it showed developing at the end of that 15 day cycle did develop. However, not all of them developed into a tropical storm or hurricane as the model predicted. It used to be that we could discount a tropical storm that developed at the end of the model run because it just wasn’t accurate. That’s not the case anymore. It may be there, but we still don’t know what kind of storm we’ll be dealing with.
Back to today! The active weather pattern continues across the US. Springfield, Massachusetts got hit with a tornado today. And Kansas has more storms rolling through tonight.
Dr. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach came out with their latest hurricane forecast today. No changes from their April forecast update. Gray/Klotzbach are still forecasting 16 named storms, 9 of those to become hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Klotzbach and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center point to above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean; a La Nina or neutral La Nina, which leads to low wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean; and a multidecadel cycle of active hurricane seasons.
I’ll be back tomorrow with an update on these disturbances being watched by the National Hurricane Center. Go to my Hurricane Tracking page to follow the latest storms.
Dawn Brown, FOX 8 News, New Orleans, dbrown@fox8live.com
Paralyzing Winter Storms Rank 3 Out of 5
2011 Northeast Storm, Image: NASA
NASA captured this image of the Christmas Blizzard of 2010 on December 28, 2010. (The clouds in the picture have waves, the snow looks like spray paint.) All in all, the system dumped almost 2 feet of snow across metro New York. The storm paralyzed the city, caused thousands of airline cancellations, and led to loud outcries from New Yorkers frustrated with the slow response. And some people just went a little crazy… did you hear the story about the guy who skied behind a car going 40 mph? Here’s the video from youtube if you missed it.
The National Climate Data Center finally came out with its ranking of the storm. There are currently 43 storms ranked on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, the scale ranks storm from 1960 forward. The Christmas Blizzard or “Great Snowstorm of 2010″ ranks as #20. (The two storms that followed on January 9-13th and February 1-3rd rank #18 and #19.)
Christmas 2010 Blizzard
January 2011 Snowstorm
February 2011 Snowstorm
In 2006, NCDC began ranking Northeast snowstorms based on their impact to the community. The storm is either notable (category 1), significant (2), major (3), crippling (4), or extreme (5). The storm is categorized by the amount of snow, the size of the area impacted and the population of the area impacted. A snowstorm that dumped 30+ inches of snow across portions of the Northeast in 1993 ranks the highest.
The difference between the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale and the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (a scale used in forecasting hurricanes), is that the snowstorm ranking is given after the storm hits. It’s not used to forecast the impact of the storm.
The difficulties in trying to forecast the impact abound. Just like determining the track of a hurricane, forecasting the track of a blizzard can be equally frustrating. The entire forecast can depend on the position and strength of the low pressure system in the center of the storm. (Hurricanes are tropical cyclones, blizzards or winter storms are extra-tropical cyclones. Both are centers of low pressure with a counter-clockwise spin. Hurricanes are warm-core systems, winter storms are cold-core systems.) In a winter storm, if the storm weakens or strengthens, or the center of the storm tracks 50 miles north or south, the amount of snow across the metropolitan New York region could range from 1-2 inches to 1-2 feet! In a hurricane, the strength of the low can be the difference between power outages and the widespread devastation.
Currently, forecasters try and determine the impact of a storm by the amount of snowfall and emergency managers response to the storm. The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale could eventually be used to forecast the storm in a manner similar to how the Saffir-Simpson Scale is used for hurricanes. It could eventually be used to give emergency managers an idea of how to prepare, how many snow plows and drivers to have on standby, how much water and/or milk you need to buy before you hunker down for the storm.
The south is preparing for yet another wintry mess. Catch the local forecasts in Little Rock, Jackson and Atlanta.
-Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans
Gulf Low Brings Another Winter Blast
February 2011 Blizzard, courtesy: NASA
Click on the image above twice for a high resolution picture.
Calling it one of the largest storms since the 1950s, NASA turned its cameras toward the Midwestern States Tuesday to capture a winter storm stretching across 30 states. Chicago and Oklahoma City were two of the hardest hit cities. Chicago came to a standstill with its 3rd highest snowfall on record, 20. 2″ of snow fell during the blizzard. Blizzard warnings are issued when winds are expected to reach 35 miles per hour. That is one of the reasons this storm was so dangerous. The other reason was ice on the roadways. Warmer air in the upper atmosphere can support other types of wintry precipitation, such as sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain is rain that freezes on contact with the surface or roadways.
If you want more information on sleet versus freezing rain, read my previous blog entry on wintry precipitation.
A lot of excitement here in New Orleans, Louisiana, as sleet began falling shortly before noon in our viewing area. The mighty Midwest storm yesterday was a rain and wind event for us, with a line of heavy thunderstorms crossing before the arctic cold front blasted us with freezing temperatures overnight.
The Threat Invest 95L Poses to the Gulf Coast
Invest 95L Satellite Imagery, Image: NOAA
National Weather Service link tracking Gulf Low. (Click on the Gulf Low tab above the radar imagery.)
Meteorologists across the Gulf Coast are closely watching Invest 95L despite its lack of organization and poor chance of development. With oil still gushing from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, this low and its associated wind and wave action could drive more oil into sensitive marshes and estuaries along the northern Gulf Coast. Yesterday, hurricane specialists Lixion Avila and Chris Landsea identified the low and gave it a 10% chance of development. We’d already had our eye on it in the FOX 8 Weather Department. Today, Avila and Landsea give it a 20% chance.
Stalled Frontal Boundary, Image: Unisys
In early June and July, the main source of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico is a low that forms off of a stalled frontal boundary in the gulf. You can see the position of the low is about 150 miles or so south-southeast of the boot of Louisiana. There’s a lot of wind shear and dry air affecting the low right now keeping it from developing into anything tropical. Wind shear is expected to remain fairly strong over the next couple of days. So, for this thing to develop, wind shear has to relax and the dry air will have to be replaced by a warm and tropical air mass.
Water Vapor Imagery, Image: NOAA
More troubling for Gulf Coast residents is the wind and wave action associated with a low pressure system east of Louisiana. With oil gushing offshore, a persistent southeast wind could drive the oil onshore. Wave heights are currently about 5 feet around the location of the Deepwater Horizon Incident. Wave heights are forecast to become 6′ offshore, keeping skimmers and other cleanup craft in safe harbor.
-Dawn Brown
Field Trip to the National Hurricane Center
Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Lixion Avila Studies Tropical Storm Alex
Field trip day! About 100 or so television meteorologists, including Bob Breck, my fiance Jonathan Myers and I, boarded a bus to the National Hurricane Center in Miami yesterday.
Bob Breck and Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans, National Hurricane Center
It was exciting for two reasons. One, I’ve never been there. And, two, there was a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea. Alex doesn’t look like it will be much of a threat to New Orleans when it reemerges in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. But, we don’t take anything for granted until a tropical system has dissipated. This was going to give me a chance to discuss the storm with the experts at the hurricane center.
When you enter the NHC, there’s a big media room to brief reporters during hurricane season. They now have the hurricane specialists separated from the media by glass walls. I can’t imagine it before they put in the glass. The hurricane specialists are trying to study all this satellite and storm data, and they have these cameras over their shoulder, studying them! Now, only one or two cameras are allowed in the media room during a land-falling hurricane.
National Hurricane Center
Behind the glass walls, hurricane specialists track tropical disturbances in both the East Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Today there were 3 tropical cyclones. Hurricane Darby and Celia in the East Pacific and Tropical Storm Alex in the Atlantic.
Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Lixion Avila was the meteorologist tracking Alex. A Cuban native, he was issuing watches and warnings for Mexico, Belize and Honduras, the countries affected by the storm on Saturday.
There were 3 other meteorologists forecasting marine advisories for shipping in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. What an enormous area to cover. The hurricane center also has storm surge specialists, researchers, etc. All in all, they don’t have a huge staff. The hurricane specialists appear to be a tight knit group. It makes sense since they have to work closely together over a period of days while they are watching a storm.
I’ll add a little bit more about my visit to the Hurricane Research Division when I update this tomorrow.
Here’s the latest track forecast for Alex. -Dawn Brown
Alex 5-Day Forecast, Image: NOAA
Alex and the Oil Spill
Tropical Storm Alex forms off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.
Infrared Satellite, TS Alex, Image: NOAA
The current track takes Alex toward the Yucatan, weakening as it crosses the peninsula. Hurricane forecasters expect it to strengthen once again in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, moving toward the south Texas coastline before possibly curving toward the west-southwest.
Official Forecast Track, Tropical Storm Alex
Most of the computer models agree on this forecast track. Hurricane specialists from the National Hurricane Center presented their post-season analysis of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season at a meteorological conference in Miami this week. During their presentation, they announced the European Model, or the ECMWF, has delivered the most successful track forecast the past few years. That model takes Alex toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward central Mexico. The ECMWF isn’t plotted on most computer model tracking maps, if you follow those.
You can find the link to the European model in my link to tracking hurricanes, but it’s hard to read for most people. Keep in mind that the hurricane specialists know which models are giving the best performance when they issue their track forecast, so you can be confident that when you are looking at the 5-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center, that is the most accurate information available.
This past week, two of the government models, the HWRF and the GFDL, were taking the disturbance in the Caribbean to the northern Gulf of Mexico. You can’t really follow computer models for tropical disturbances until there is a tropical depression, or a center of circulation. It’s hard to explain, but the mathematical models are set up to take a storm that has already formed and track it. They do a pretty good job of that. But, until a low, or depression has formed, you can’t rely on all those “spaghetti plots”, as they are familiarly called.
I walked up to Bill Read, the Director of the National Hurricane Center, and I said, “Hi, Mr. Read, I’m Dawn Brown from FOX 8 New Orleans. What’s up with the HWRF?”
Well, he smiled and said, “We initialized the model with a fake storm…, ” to try and give people battling the oil spill an idea of where Alex might go if it formed. Basically, the hurricane specialists had to input some numbers into the storm, such as maximum winds, etc., to run the model, because once again, these models are not designed to work unless there is a storm.
This is why last week, when most of the models were taking the tropical disturbance toward the west, the HWRF and GFDL were headed straight north. Now those two models are more in line with the other computer models and the official track from the National Hurricane Center reflects that.
Does that mean workers near the oil spill need not worry? No. We still have to watch Alex cross the Yucatan and see how it fares in the southwestern Gulf in the beginning of next week.
By the way, I really like Bill Read. Straight shooter, very smart, great communicator.
-Dawn Brown
Red River Rises, Spring Flood Forecast
US Flood Risk, Image: NOAA
Sandbagging continues today on the Red River in Fargo, North Dakota. Residents in North Dakota can monitor the latest river stages. As of 11am this morning, the river was at 31′ feet in Fargo, 13′ above flood stage. It’s expected to crest at 38′ this Saturday. They can also watch the river rise through USGS (United States Geological Survey) web cams. Last year, the river rose to 40.8′, a record level for the Red River in Fargo.
24-Hour Snow Melt, Image: NOAA
Rapid snow melt is the main reason for the rising rivers. Near record snowfall across the Northern Plains caused the National Weather Service to put the Red River at a severe risk for flooding.
Red River Webcam, Image: USGS
This is an updated web cam image from earlier today. Look at the obelisk circled in the image. Two days ago, this obelisk was well above the banks of the river.
Red River Webcam, Image: USGS
You can clearly see the banks of the river, the obelisk and a walking trail. This is in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
Major Flood Crests, Grand Forks Image: USGS
Here’s a close up shot of the obelisk on the banks of the river. It marks the flood stage of last year’s flood, and the height of the river in 1897, 1979, 1882 and 1996.
To further monitor the situation, here’s a link to TV forecasters in Fargo and Northern Minnesota.
-Dawn Brown
My New Gig at FOX 8. Check Out The Weather Lab!
It was a gorgeous day in New Orleans today. Dry, breezy and sunny. It’s the kind of weather we look forward to all year. It’s been a cold winter down here, we’ve been waiting for Spring.
Cirrus Clouds, New Orleans Sunset
On my way to talk to a community group tonight, I shot this photo as I was looking to the southwest. What a gorgeous sunset. Louisiana often has beautiful sunsets and sunrises. Interesting cloud formations reflect the sunlight as the sun rises and falls.
Meanwhile, I’ve been neglected my weather blog. My new job at FOX 8 is creating new and interesting challenges. I love my job. We launched a new show called FOX 8 Morning Call on February 1.
Here’s a picture of Chris Franklin and me from this morning at 5am.
Chris Franklin and Dawn Brown, WVUE New Orleans
We started this new show that’s kind of like the Weather Channel, but it’s focused on Southeast Louisiana. We do the usual temperatures, rain chances, forecast, but then we get to spend extra time talking about the wave heights and sea surface temperatures in the lakes and Gulf of Mexico, the kind of stuff fisherman and mariners are interested in. We have the buoy data from all the Gulf Coast buoys plotted in our new weather system.
Here’s the pic I took Friday of the current sea surface temperatures on one of our new weather systems.
Sea Surface Temperatures, (3/12/2010)
Here’s Chris at the weather wall. Because I’m usually doing the weather, I never get to see how weird it looks that we’re pointing at a blank green wall.
Chris Franklin, WVUE New Orleans
Our weather graphics are projected onto the wall, and we are “keyed” out of the graphics. We can’t wear green or we would blend right into the graphics. We’ll probably both get pinched on St. Patty’s Day!
It’s awesome having two meteorologists in the mornings. Besides having the extra help with forecasts and graphics, we get to explain basic weather phenomenon, like hail, high pressure systems, sea fog, etc.
Every week, Chris and I also host a segment called “Weather Lab”, where we explain basic weather terms with experiments. Last week, Chris crushed a soda can with air pressure.
I’m having a blast! However, I’ve been remiss with my weather blog and adding new features to my website. I’m getting back on track… bear with me.
Thanks – Dawn Brown