Gulf Low Brings Another Winter Blast
February 2011 Blizzard, courtesy: NASA
Click on the image above twice for a high resolution picture.
Calling it one of the largest storms since the 1950s, NASA turned its cameras toward the Midwestern States Tuesday to capture a winter storm stretching across 30 states. Chicago and Oklahoma City were two of the hardest hit cities. Chicago came to a standstill with its 3rd highest snowfall on record, 20. 2″ of snow fell during the blizzard. Blizzard warnings are issued when winds are expected to reach 35 miles per hour. That is one of the reasons this storm was so dangerous. The other reason was ice on the roadways. Warmer air in the upper atmosphere can support other types of wintry precipitation, such as sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain is rain that freezes on contact with the surface or roadways.
If you want more information on sleet versus freezing rain, read my previous blog entry on wintry precipitation.
A lot of excitement here in New Orleans, Louisiana, as sleet began falling shortly before noon in our viewing area. The mighty Midwest storm yesterday was a rain and wind event for us, with a line of heavy thunderstorms crossing before the arctic cold front blasted us with freezing temperatures overnight.
Stormy Setup for New Year’s Eve
Gulf Low Develops, Image: Unisys Weather
Happy Holidays Everyone! I hope you enjoyed your Christmas. It was a stormy Christmas across the Midwest. The weather has finally quieted this Sunday.
Look at the computer model forecast for the storm setup this Thursday. Another low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday, coastal Texas will be doused with heavy rain. The thunderstorms will then move to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. On Thursday, Georgia and the Carolinas will be feeling the brunt of the storm.
What happens next is a long way off, but the East Coast may be preparing for a stormy New Year’s Eve.
Low Develops off East Coast, Image: Unisys Weather
Currently, the main thunderstorm activity will be off the coast, but by Friday and Saturday, the low tries to redevelop just off the coast of New Jersey, and it could be another snowmaker for parts of the Northeast next weekend.
-Dawn Brown
Flooding Rains Across Gulf South
Radar, Southeast States, Image: NOAA (Image is OLD!)
Click here for the latest radar imagery.
Flooding rains continue to fall in New Orleans, Louisiana this morning, as a tropical air mass collides with a cold front. Flash flood watches are in affect for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina today. The cold front will begin to march east later tonight. New Orleans has experienced a record amount of rain in the last few days with 21.20″ of rain since December 1. Rain is still falling.
After a brief break, more rain is possible at the end of the week as another Gulf low sets up south of Houston, Texas.
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
An arctic air mass is once again trying to make its way into the Great Lakes region. It’s in the single digits in Minneapolis today.
Temperatures along the Gulf South will drop from the 70s to the 50s by Wednesday.
A Pacific storm is dumping rain and snow across the Northwest.
-Dawn Brown
Dense Fog Seeps into Gulf States
US Watches and Warnings, Image: NOAA
Click for the latest national watches and warnings.
As you can see from the map above, dense fog advisories extend from central Texas to North Carolina. Advisories are posted when the visibility is 1/4 mile or less. That’s about 1300 feet. Dense fog can be a persistent problem along the Gulf South this time of year after a spell of cold weather. A warm, tropical air mass will override that cold air, and create a perfect setup for fog. Fog is a winter hazard. Here’s the link to my previous blog about fog.
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
Heavy rain is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama later today.
Snow is forecast for parts of Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. And, a winter storm is crossing the Cascades in the West.
-Dawn Brown
Ida Advances as a Cat 2 Hurricane
Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
- Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Hurricane Ida is advancing toward the northern Gulf Coast as a category 2 hurricane this Sunday with maximum winds up to 105 miles per hour. In their discussion National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate the satellite presentation of the eye is looking a little more ragged this Sunday evening. The wind shear in this part of the Gulf of Mexico is about 30 knots, or about 35 miles per hour.
The southwesterly shear is expected to slightly weaken the storm as it continues its northerly course. Click here for the latest wind shear image.
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Ida to remain a hurricane for the next 36 hours, making landfall as a possibly category 1 hurricane near the Alabama/Florida border. It is expected to make a transition to a winter-type cyclone when it collides with a cold front that is currently crossing the central United States. Current computer model forecasts suggest Ida may be forced on a more easterly track because of this oncoming front. (Go to the Hurricane Tracking link to your left.) By Monday morning, Ida’s fate and its impact on the Gulf Coast will become more apparent. Overnight, we’ll know how Ida is handling the increased wind shear and the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. As I say this, the computer models have done a pretty good job of forecasting Ida’s re-strengthening in the Caribbean and Gulf, and they continue to forecast a storm with hurricane force winds at landfall.
Storm Surge Modeling from the National Hurricane Center gives coastal residents an idea of the probability of being affected by storm surge and higher than average tides. When you are looking at the map, zoom into your area. Then, choose probability of storm surge either above 2′, 3′, 4′… etc. Then click on the button, “Load Data”.
Currently, there is a 5-10 % probability of storm surge above 6′ affecting coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. The probabilities change based on the strength and path of the storm. Watch your local TV forecasts in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for the latest watches and warnings.
-Dawn Brown
Hurricane Watch for Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Hurricane Ida gained strength last night over the deep well of warm water over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is now a category 1 hurricane with 90 mile an hour winds. It may strengthen briefly again, before weakening over the central Gulf. Hurricane watches have now been posted for coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Click on the link for your state for the latest watches and warnings from your local TV forecaster.
Hurricane Ida, Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
The visible satellite imagery of Ida shows that Ida is experiencing some wind shear to the north and west of the storm. The pool of warm water that has allowed Ida to strengthen once again will start to come to an end once it enters the central Gulf of Mexico. However, with its forward speed, Ida may not have time to substantially weaken before landfall. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Ida to maintain hurricane status for the next 2 days. It’s possible that it will still have hurricane force winds when it is about 110 miles away from Grand Isle, Louisiana. The storm is tightly packed and that may help ease the impact on northern Gulf States. Currently, Ida is about 60 miles from Cancun, and maximum winds experienced there are about 15 miles per hour. (Source: Weather Underground )
When Ida is about 20 miles south of Gulf Shores, Alabama, maximum sustained winds are expected to be about 70 miles per hour. At that point, it is expected to be making the transition from a tropical hurricane to an extra-tropical storm. During the transition, the storm can expand, and the high winds could affect a larger area.
Coastal tides in Louisiana area expected to be about 5-6 feet above normal Sunday night into Monday.
-Dawn Brown