Warmer Air Arrives Midweek
The bone-chilling cold across the central and eastern United States takes a break from its winter-time duties this week, allowing warm air to return!
Today's High Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
The high temperature in Denver, Colorado today is expected to be 56 degrees! You can see the plume of warm air reaching all the way up to Rapid City, South Dakota, where its gonna climb to the mid 50s today as well.
Los Angeles and Phoenix are finally giving their snowbirds the weather they deserve as well.
And, by Thursday, it’s going to be even warmer!
Thursday's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
After reporting snowflakes last Saturday morning, central and southern Florida will once again feel the warmth that makes the Sunshine State so famous. Winter beach-goers take note, by Saturday, Miami will once again reach 80 degrees.
-Dawn Brown
Better Hurricane Forecasting-More Time to Get Out
When a hurricane approaches, all the public wants to know is: Where is it going? And, do I need to evacuate?
The National Hurricane Center says better track forecasts will allow them to give you more warning if a hurricane is headed toward your city. Instead of just 24-hours notice, hurricane forecasters say the track forecasts have improved so much, they can now issued a hurricane warning 36-hours in advance of a storm. That gives residents 12 more hours to board up their house, and make preparations for the advance of the storm, including evacuating if need be. Hurricane watches will be posted along coastlines 48-hours in advance of the storm’s landfall. “With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations,” said Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. (Source: NOAA)
Forecast Track: Hurricane Ida, Image: NHC, NOAA
(This is a forecast graphic. Click here for the actual track of Hurricane Ida.)
The image above is a forecast track advisory from Hurricane Ida on Sunday, November 8th when it was between Cuba and Cancun, Mexico. I’ve circled Ida’s position on the map at 12PM on that Sunday. In 24 hours, the storm was expected to still be a hurricane as it approached Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the panhandle of Florida. The National Hurricane Center was giving the coastlines a 36-hour advance notice that the storm could be a hurricane or extra-tropical hurricane as it approached the coast. Now, this watch will be issued 12-hours earlier.
Will this advanced lead time in the track forecast give TV meteorologists better tools to warn the public? Yes and no. Yes, we will be able to tell the public “… We are under a hurricane watch this evening. That means National Hurricane Center forecasters believe the hurricane is going to make landfall along our coastline in the next 48 hours.”
But, we still won’t be able to tell the public with complete confidence how strong the storm will be once it approaches. We’ve said this over and over, that despite advances in forecasting the path of the storm, the intensity forecast is still far from perfect.
For example, let’s just take a look at the graphic above, when the storm was 2 days away from hitting the northern Gulf Coast.
Comparing Forecast to Actual Track, Image: NOAA
24 hours after this advisory was issued, Ida had actually weakened to a tropical storm. Thus all the hurricane watches and warnings became tropical storm watches and warnings for the northern Gulf Coast. Ida made landfall in Dauphin Island, Alabama at about 7am on November 10th as a tropical storm with 45 mile per hour winds. A substantial difference from what was forecast just 24 hours earlier.
However, the track forecast was spot on! That’s why the NHC has become more and more confident that they can tell you where the storm is headed.
And, despite the pitfalls I’ve shown you in this blog when it comes to the intensity forecast, more and more hurricane research is aiming to improve that forecast as well.
-Dawn Brown
What Causes an Arctic Outbreak?
Morning Lows, Image: NOAA
Another surge of arctic air is spreading across the US. Temperatures have dropped below zero is as many as 12 states today. These large pools of arctic air produce dangerous conditions for the entire country, especially the Upper Midwest. In the Southern States, the “arctic chilled” air can kill sensitive crops that depend on the warmer climate during the wintertime. The cold air also just stresses our minds, bodies, and heating resources at this time of year!
So what causes these arctic outbreaks? The easy answer is the Arctic Circle, or the North Pole, gets very little sunlight at this time of year. Not only is there very little sunshine to warm the air, the little bit of sun the Arctic gets is reflected away from the landmasses by snow and ice. Short days and long nights make for a VERY COLD WINTER. The long nights can allow temperatures to drop to -40 degrees at the top of the earth!
Arctic Outbreak Explainer, Image: NOAA
So, all winter long, cold air is building in the Arctic Circle. But what finally causes this air to move, to take the plunge south, and bring the “arctic chilled” air to the Central and Southern US?
According to Keith Heidorn from The Weather Doctor,
“… Eventually high-altitude winds catch the air masses and push them outward, usually toward the south and east as huge High pressure systems… Each winter much of central and eastern North America typically receives several great blasts of cold arctic air. They chill us to the bone and often produce ground blizzard and extreme wind chill conditions in addition to the frigidly cold temperatures.”
Yesterday, the cold blast came when an arctic cold front swept across the middle of the country. Temperatures were falling to the teens, then single digits, then below zero in places like Kansas City, Missouri, Lincoln, Nebraska, Des Moines, Iowa, and Butte, Montana.
The temperature dropped 10 degrees in one hour in New Orleans, Louisiana yesterday! After hitting a high of 60, they are now looking at a morning low in the upper 20s.
Click here for the latest watches and warning from the National Weather Service.
To get the local TV forecast for your hometown, or a travel forecast, click on the My Weather Lady TV forecasts.
-Dawn Brown
Another Arctic Outbreak
National Watches and Warnings, Image: NOAA
Click for the latest national watches and warnings.
Yesterday, folks in Sioux Falls, South Dakota woke up to -11 degrees. Today, they are waking up to a balmy 7 degrees!
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in place across 25 states this Wednesday morning. Check out the chilly forecast in: Milwaukee, Wisconsin, St. Louis, Missouri, or Cheyenne Wyoming.
Arctic Temperatures Plunge South Again, Image: Unisys Weather
Another blast of cold air is headed to the Midwest. Check out the computer model forecast for Thursday morning. The arctic air finally makes its way east by the beginning of next week, when more average temperatures are expected.
-Dawn Brown
Teeth Chattering Cold!
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
Waking up to -11 degrees in places like Sioux Falls, South Dakota this Tuesday morning!
With morning lows in the 20s, afternoon highs are expected to be in the 40s this afternoon across much of the Southern States. The bitter cold has gripped much of the Mid-Section of the country.
The middle of January is usually when the coldest temperatures settle in across the country, we are seeing that a little bit early this year.
Check out the TV forecasts in places like Des Moines, Iowa, Springfield, Illinois, and Nashville, Tennessee.
Another arctic pool of air is in place behind this one, its hold on the middle of the country is far from over.
-Dawn Brown
New Year Welcomes Bitter Cold
National Watches and Warnings, Image: NOAA
Click for the latest watches and warnings.
Bitter cold is sweeping across the mid-section and deep South this Monday morning. There’s a HUGE high pressure system sitting in the middle of the country over Iowa and Nebraska. (Surface high pressure lends itself to sinking air and fair skies. During the winter, it usually means really cold air!)
Today's Temperature Forecast, Image: NOAA
This high is expected to maintain itself over the midsection for the next several days, leading to mostly sunny days and chilly nights. Freeze watches and warnings are in effect in cities such as New Orleans, Louisiana and Orlando, Florida.
By Friday, a storm system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Then, there’s the possibility of a wintry mix as far South as Southeastern Louisiana.
-Dawn Brown
Happy New Year, Welcome 2010
HAPPY NEW YEAR! I’m looking forward to this year!