Ida Advances as a Cat 2 Hurricane

Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Hurricane Ida is advancing toward the northern Gulf Coast as a category 2 hurricane this Sunday with maximum winds up to 105 miles per hour. In their discussion National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate the satellite presentation of the eye is looking a little more ragged this Sunday evening. The wind shear in this part of the Gulf of Mexico is about 30 knots, or about 35 miles per hour.

The southwesterly shear is expected to slightly weaken the storm as it continues its northerly course. Click here for the latest wind shear image.

The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Ida to remain a hurricane for the next 36 hours, making landfall as a possibly category 1 hurricane near the Alabama/Florida border. It is expected to make a transition to a winter-type cyclone when it collides with a cold front that is currently crossing the central United States. Current computer model forecasts suggest Ida may be forced on a more easterly track because of this oncoming front. (Go to the Hurricane Tracking link to your left.) By Monday morning, Ida’s fate and its impact on the Gulf Coast will become more apparent. Overnight, we’ll know how Ida is handling the increased wind shear and the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. As I say this, the computer models have done a pretty good job of forecasting Ida’s re-strengthening in the Caribbean and Gulf, and they continue to forecast a storm with hurricane force winds at landfall.

Storm Surge Modeling from the National Hurricane Center gives coastal residents an idea of the probability of being affected by storm surge and higher than average tides. When you are looking at the map, zoom into your area. Then, choose probability of storm surge either above 2′, 3′, 4′… etc. Then click on the button, “Load Data”.

Currently, there is a 5-10 % probability of storm surge above 6′ affecting coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. The probabilities change based on the strength and path of the storm. Watch your local TV forecasts in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for the latest watches and warnings.

-Dawn Brown