Ida Advances as a Cat 2 Hurricane
Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
- Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Hurricane Ida is advancing toward the northern Gulf Coast as a category 2 hurricane this Sunday with maximum winds up to 105 miles per hour. In their discussion National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate the satellite presentation of the eye is looking a little more ragged this Sunday evening. The wind shear in this part of the Gulf of Mexico is about 30 knots, or about 35 miles per hour.
The southwesterly shear is expected to slightly weaken the storm as it continues its northerly course. Click here for the latest wind shear image.
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Ida to remain a hurricane for the next 36 hours, making landfall as a possibly category 1 hurricane near the Alabama/Florida border. It is expected to make a transition to a winter-type cyclone when it collides with a cold front that is currently crossing the central United States. Current computer model forecasts suggest Ida may be forced on a more easterly track because of this oncoming front. (Go to the Hurricane Tracking link to your left.) By Monday morning, Ida’s fate and its impact on the Gulf Coast will become more apparent. Overnight, we’ll know how Ida is handling the increased wind shear and the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. As I say this, the computer models have done a pretty good job of forecasting Ida’s re-strengthening in the Caribbean and Gulf, and they continue to forecast a storm with hurricane force winds at landfall.
Storm Surge Modeling from the National Hurricane Center gives coastal residents an idea of the probability of being affected by storm surge and higher than average tides. When you are looking at the map, zoom into your area. Then, choose probability of storm surge either above 2′, 3′, 4′… etc. Then click on the button, “Load Data”.
Currently, there is a 5-10 % probability of storm surge above 6′ affecting coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. The probabilities change based on the strength and path of the storm. Watch your local TV forecasts in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for the latest watches and warnings.
-Dawn Brown
Ida’s Winds Top 100 Miles Per Hour
Go to Hurricane Tracking for the latest track forecast.
Hurricane Watch for Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida 5-Day Track, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
Hurricane Ida gained strength last night over the deep well of warm water over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is now a category 1 hurricane with 90 mile an hour winds. It may strengthen briefly again, before weakening over the central Gulf. Hurricane watches have now been posted for coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Click on the link for your state for the latest watches and warnings from your local TV forecaster.
Hurricane Ida, Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge
The visible satellite imagery of Ida shows that Ida is experiencing some wind shear to the north and west of the storm. The pool of warm water that has allowed Ida to strengthen once again will start to come to an end once it enters the central Gulf of Mexico. However, with its forward speed, Ida may not have time to substantially weaken before landfall. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Ida to maintain hurricane status for the next 2 days. It’s possible that it will still have hurricane force winds when it is about 110 miles away from Grand Isle, Louisiana. The storm is tightly packed and that may help ease the impact on northern Gulf States. Currently, Ida is about 60 miles from Cancun, and maximum winds experienced there are about 15 miles per hour. (Source: Weather Underground )
When Ida is about 20 miles south of Gulf Shores, Alabama, maximum sustained winds are expected to be about 70 miles per hour. At that point, it is expected to be making the transition from a tropical hurricane to an extra-tropical storm. During the transition, the storm can expand, and the high winds could affect a larger area.
Coastal tides in Louisiana area expected to be about 5-6 feet above normal Sunday night into Monday.
-Dawn Brown