Ida Strengthens… Cat 1 Hurricane Again

Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Update from the The National Hurricane Center:

1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 …IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY… DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056…LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES…195 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO… RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH…119 KM/HR. THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS… WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH…120 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Ida Track Forecast, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

The track forecast has not changed much over the last 24 hours, with the exception that Ida may retain tropical characteristics until it is near landfall in the panhandle of Florida. Portions of the northern Gulf Coast continue to be under coastal flood watches. Heavy rain will also be a problem as a cold front slams into the approaching tropical air mass. Why does the National Hurricane Center think Ida will weaken in the center of the Gulf of Mexico?

Wind Shear Analysis, Image: University of Wisconsin click to enlarge

Once again, we need to revisit wind shear. Taking a look at this current wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin, the yellow lines in the Gulf of Mexico show us how much wind shear the storm will run into once Ida cross the Yucatan Straits. This map is difficult to read. What you need to know is the current wind shear over the Gulf exceeds 30 knots or about 35 miles per hour. This can be a hostile environment for tropical systems. National Hurricane Center forecasters expect Ida to remain a hurricane for the next two days, let’s see if that occurs.

-Dawn Brown