Ida Strengthens… Cat 1 Hurricane Again

Hurricane Ida, Infrared Satellite, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

Update from the The National Hurricane Center:

1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 …IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY… DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056…LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES…195 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO… RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH…119 KM/HR. THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS… WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH…120 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Ida Track Forecast, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

The track forecast has not changed much over the last 24 hours, with the exception that Ida may retain tropical characteristics until it is near landfall in the panhandle of Florida. Portions of the northern Gulf Coast continue to be under coastal flood watches. Heavy rain will also be a problem as a cold front slams into the approaching tropical air mass. Why does the National Hurricane Center think Ida will weaken in the center of the Gulf of Mexico?

Wind Shear Analysis, Image: University of Wisconsin click to enlarge

Once again, we need to revisit wind shear. Taking a look at this current wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin, the yellow lines in the Gulf of Mexico show us how much wind shear the storm will run into once Ida cross the Yucatan Straits. This map is difficult to read. What you need to know is the current wind shear over the Gulf exceeds 30 knots or about 35 miles per hour. This can be a hostile environment for tropical systems. National Hurricane Center forecasters expect Ida to remain a hurricane for the next two days, let’s see if that occurs.

-Dawn Brown

Tropical Storm Ida Will Bring Heavy Rain

Tropical Storm Ida 5-day Track, Image: NHC, NOAA

Tropical Storm Ida has made a comeback, packing 60 mile per hour winds this Saturday morning as it quickly makes a beeline for the central Gulf of Mexico. The northern Gulf Coast could be slammed with heavy rain Monday and Tuesday. You’ll notice on the hurricane tracking map from the National Hurricane Center Ida will become extra-tropical or more like a winter-type cyclone by Tuesday. Strong winds and large waves could still affect portions of the Gulf Coast, and you need to watch your local TV forecast for the latest watches and warnings — go to GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST! in the right hand column of this website. You can see from the tracking map that even though portions of Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the panhandle of Florida will receive some heavy rain and gusty winds, they will avoid the damaging winds and coastal surge associated with a tropical storm or hurricane.

Tropical Storm Ida Visible Satellite, Image: NOAA

The storm is looking fairly healthy this morning. This wasn’t unexpected as it is over a deep well of warm water over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is possible it could strengthen into a hurricane in the next 24-hours as it makes its way through the Yucatan Straits. Once Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter cooler waters and high wind shear. (60-90 miles an hour) For more information on wind shear and how it affects storms, see my previous blog from earlier this week.

-Dawn Brown