Ida Looks Like a Tropical Storm… Again

Satellite Image Ida, Image: NOAA click to enlarge

This is a quick update to let you know that Ida is starting to look more and more organized, and will probably be back at  tropical storm status by the next update at 4am ET from the National Hurricane Center.

Ida has a lot of warm water to work with over the western Caribbean Sea, and by the look of the satellite picture, the deep well of warm water is helping the storm reorganize. There is also a lot of wind shear in this part of the Caribbean. However, all of the computer models continue to strengthen Ida. It is going to be interesting to find out what happens when it cross the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.

For the latest computer model tracks, go to my Hurricane Tracking link to your left. The forecast is still pretty tricky, heavy rain out ahead of Ida will still definitely affect the northern Gulf Coast and Florida.

-Dawn Brown

Ida Still Weak, Heads Toward Gulf

Ida Heads Toward Gulf: Image, NOAA (click to enlarge)

This is a current satellite image of Tropical Depression Ida, which is still spinning on the coastal plains of the Nicaraguan/Honduran border (It is still inland-will move over the western Caribbean Sea later today.) For the last 24-hours, computer models continue to develop Ida back into a tropical storm or minimal hurricane and send it into the Gulf of Mexico.

That is where the forecast gets a little tricky. At this time of year, strong winds over the southern portion of the United States could either send Ida on a fast track toward Florida (possibly as a minimal hurricane), or tear the storm apart in the middle of the Gulf. Wind shear in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico right now is about 45-90 miles per hour. Tropical systems don’t like wind shear greater than about 20 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center is going with more typical thinking for the weather patterns at  this time of year. Forecasters there believe the storm will transition from a tropical storm into a winter-type low pressure system somewhere in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, and head toward Florida (possibly) as a heavy rainmaker.

Computer Model - Ida Tuesday, Image: Unisys Weather

This computer model image shows the storm pattern across the United States. (The color contours show areas of stronger winds and colder air–the blues and greens.) What is important for you to note about this image is where Ida is located on this model on Tuesday. It is just north of Cuba. Now, let’s take a look at the computer model image from Wednesday.

Computer Model - Ida Wednesday, Image: Unisys Weather

In this image, Ida has weakened, and the steering currents aren’t letting it move closer to the northern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the steering currents aren’t letting the storm move much at all. That’s why I say the forecast gets a little tricky when the storm tries to get into the Gulf of Mexico, and why forecasters say things like Ida will be “stranded” once it gets into the Gulf. It’s because the upper level steering currents won’t let it move closer to the United States. This is why the spaghetti plot lines go straight north for the next 5 days, and then they bend BACK toward the South.

Ida Spaghetti Plots, Image: Weather Underground

These spaghetti plots from Weather Underground tell the story. For the latest track forecast on Ida, please go to my Hurricane Tracking links to your left.

Dr. Jeff Masters has some thoughts in his blog today on why Ida will strengthen in the western Caribbean Sea, despite some pretty good wind shear, because of the large amount of warm water. Also, I’d be interested to see what Max Mayfield, (former director of the National Hurricane Center), has to say about Ida in his blog later today, since he’s still based out of Miami.  Check out their hurricane blogs to your left.

Meanwhile, have you checked out the heavy rain forecast for the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Tropical moisture will be heading toward the northern Gulf ahead of Ida for Sunday through Tuesday.

-Dawn Brown