Tropical Storm Ida
- Wind Shear, Image: University of Wisconsin
Tropical Storm Ida is spinning off the coast of Nicaragua… and is expected to dump a lot of heavy rain in Central America. I’m a little embarrassed about the graphic I’m posting to my website, mainly because it’s very difficult to read. It’s important to show folks living in the United States, because it gives you an idea of the kind of environment a storm like Ida faces at this time of year if it moves close to the United States. Ida is the blob of white circled in red on the map. The white outlines to the left show Central America. The yellow lines on the map tell us the kind of wind shear occurring near Ida right now.
Tropical Depression #11
Tropical Depression #11, Image: NOAA
Tropical Depression #11 has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Costa Rica and Panama. Just from looking at the satellite, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center believe it could be a tropical storm, hurricane hunter aircraft will be flying through the complex of thunderstorms later today.
The next name on the list of 2009 Hurricane Names is Ida. Computer model analysis differs on the direction of this storm, mainly because the steering currents aren’t that strong in the area. There’s is a possibility it could slightly drift northward toward the central Caribbean Sea and the coast of Mexico.
For the latest computer model analysis, click on my link to Tracking Hurricanes. You can find the latest spaghetti plots, as well as high-tech tracking maps. At least one model has the storm drifting north. The official track takes the storm northwest.
No computer model is going to tell you exactly what’s going to happen with this storm though. Right now, the steering currents over the Southwestern Caribbean are weak. The track forecast has the system moving over Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. If that happens, the heavy rain from the thunderstorms will definitely cause problems in the forms of mudslides for these Central American countries.
I’ll have more later.
-Dawn Brown