Floods, High Winds, Quiet in the Tropics!
High wind warnings are in effect for Southern California the next couple of days. Warm temperatures, low humidity and highs winds is a bad combination during fire season. Here’s the latest forecast from Los Angeles.
Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia continue to be hit by flash flooding. Once again, you can click on ABC Birmingham for the very latest in radar reports, warnings and the current weather forecast from the local television affiliate. I also have a link to the NBC Atlanta Forecast where heavy rain continues this Monday.
Oklahoma today is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Watch FOX Oklahoma City later this afternoon for the latest watches and warnings.
The National Hurricane Center continues to predict no tropical development in the next 48 hours. The one tropical wave I was watching, Invest 98L, is showing a little bit more organization this morning. Currently, it’s just an area of showers and thunderstorms out in the middle of the Atlantic. Dry air over the past couple of days has been getting mixed into the area of disturbed weather, and kept it from developing into a tropical system. No matter what, it won’t affect the US. My previous blog has more details on the dry air that’s been affecting Invest 98L.
-Dawn Brown
Dry Air Disrupting 98L
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) click to enlarge
The NHC is no longer listing Invest 98L as an area of possible development. Dry air has been wreaking havoc on the area of showers and thunderstorms. Friday night the bursts of reds and yellows, indicating growing thunderstorms, looked impressive. But since Saturday morning, the storm has been having trouble. Click to read more…
Invest 98L Remains Disorganized…
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) Click to Enlarge
Invest 98L is not looking good today. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave looked pretty impressive Friday night into Saturday, but now not so much! The NHC’s hurricane model still develops the invest into a tropical storm. If it does, it’s not going to affect the US.
Heavy rain continues across the midsection of the country. Flash flood warnings near Memphis, Tennessee and St. Louis Missouri. Watch ABC Memphis Weather for the latest on the storms there. And, here’s a link to the CBS St. Louis Weather forecast.
Dawn Brown
Invest 98L Looks To Be Named Grace
More than 90,000 fan will pack Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge today for the second LSU home game. Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi have had heavy downpours off and on all week. Currently, Birmingham Alabama has flash flood warnings. Watch Birmingham’s forecast to find out about the heavy rains, and Baton Rouge’s forecast to find out about tailgating at Louisiana State Unversity.
Invest 98L looks like it will develop into Tropical Storm Grace this weekend. Click below to read more!
Quick Update on 98L
No real changes from this morning. At least two reliable computer models continue to forecast the development of Invest 98L, even though it may run into some strong wind shear as it continues its westward movement across the Atlantic. If you look at my earlier post, there’s a graphic of how wind shear cuts off the tops of developing storms.
Heavy rain continues across the midsection of the country. Here’s the Memphis Weathercast.
-Dawn Brown
A New Invest In the Atlantic
Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) Click to Enlarge
The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane models are trying to develop a tropical wave out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. It is currently called 98L. (You can always click on the image to make it larger.) I think it’s a good chance this system could develop into another tropical system based on warm sea surface temperatures and favorable wind shear where it’s currently located. However, as it continues its westward migration, it will run into a good bit of wind shear,
Wind Shear (Courtesy NOAA - Hurricane Research Division)
and that will cause problems for the developing storm. As I’ve mentioned in the past, global computer models have a tough time forecasting the strengthening of a storm, the track forecast is more reliable. And the track forecast has this system turning north in the middle of the Atlantic, if it does develop. With the current weather pattern, upper level troughs spinning off the East Coast of the United States, these storms are being turned north before they can come close to the United States this year. Tomorrow, I’ll explain what an upper level trough is… and why it’s helped us out this year!
These troughs have also created a cool summer for a good section of the country.
Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, looked at the climate data from this past summer, and had some interesting information about our summer.
Here’s the script from his blog:
“A cool August and cool summer for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average August temperature was 0.6°F below average, making it the 30th coolest August in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. as a whole was below normal for the summer period (June – August). A recurring upper level trough held the June – August temperatures down in the central states, where Michigan experienced its fifth coolest summer, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota their seventh coolest each, Nebraska its eighth, and Iowa its ninth. In contrast, the temperatures in Florida averaged out to be fourth warmest, while Washington and Texas experienced their eighth and ninth warmest summers, respectively.
U.S. precipitation in August was below average, as the month ranked 28th driest in the 115-year record. Arizona had its fourth driest August, New Mexico its fifth, and it was the eighth driest August for Colorado, Utah and Texas. Arizona observed its third driest summer, while both South Carolina and Georgia had their sixth driest. It was the 8th wettest summer on record in the Northeast.
At the end of August, 13% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South to Central Texas. However, significant drought relief occurred in this region the second week of September, when a large area of tropical moisture settled in over the region, bringing heavy rains. About 19 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the severely to extremely wet categories in August.”
The link for Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderground Blog is on the left side of my screen. I’m sure he’ll have something about Invest 98L later today.
I’ll talk to you tomorrow! -Dawn Brown
I Like the New NHC Homepage
Tropical Storm Marty (courtesy NOAA)
Tropical Storm Marty, left, is losing it’s punch in the Pacific, and steering currents, are turning it away from Baja California. The steering currents in the Pacific Ocean are one of the main reasons the West Coast of the United States is spared from tropical systems. When these storms form in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the storm will start it’s move toward the north, northwest, but eventually it will turn out to sea. (Note, one hurricane computer model, strengthens the storm, and takes it toward Baja, but NHC forecasters are not buying into that.) Read the NHC discussion.
I just noticed something really cool about the National Hurricane Center’s page this year. Last year, they started posting a tropical outlook image on their front page, like the image in this post. As you can see, today, it says, “Tropical Cyclone Activity is Not Expected During the Next 48 Hours.” If there is a tropical system, they will have the icon for it posted on the page, and then usually they have a couple of shaded circles on the page indicated areas of possible development. The circles are either yellow (low chance), orange (medium chance) or red (high chance) of development. This gives the internet user a quick glance at the tropics, and the areas of disturbed weather the NHC forecasters are looking at for development into tropical systems. THIS YEAR, they’ve started giving you the latest stats on the storm right below the name of the storm. For Marty, it looks like this:
8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 17
Location: 19.7°N 113.1°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
I love this feature. Before, you had to pull up the advisory or discussion, and it was in somewhere in the middle of the discussion. This makes it a lot easier to track these storms on your hurricane map!
I’m working on behind the scenes stuff today, trying to get my KIDS STUFF category updated, and my frequently asked questions link up and running. Hope you have a great day!
-Dawn Brown
National Hurricane Center
The Pacific is Getting All the Action!
Tropical Storm Marty (courtesy NOAA)
Tropical Storm Marty formed off the Mexican coast last night, and Baja California could once again be affected by a tropical system in the few days. It’s expected to weaken once it gets close to Baja, and it doesn’t look like it will be close enough for Baja to even experience tropical storm force winds. However, wave action from the system could affect swells off the Pacific coast, check out Surfline’s Hurricane Tracker forecast for the latest on the swells from this tropical system.
Remnants of Fred (courtesy NOAA)
On the left hand side of the page, I have the latest satellite imagery from the Atlantic Ocean, which shows the remnants of Hurricane Fred. Fred was the second major hurricane of the season after Hurricane Bill. In this satellite picture, the remnants of Fred are an area of showers and thunderstorms on the far right. At least one reliable computer model has Fred regenerating close to the Bahamas. But I have to remind readers once again that these computer models have trouble forecasting the intensity of a storm. If Fred did regenerate close the Bahamas, another upper level trough sweeping across the continental United States would carry Fred on a more northerly track once it moved close to the Bahamas. Keep in mind, though, the National Hurricane Center is giving the remnants of Fred a low (less than 30%) chance of redeveloping.
Meanwhile, rain from a STUBBORN area of low pressure continues to plague the Midwest. The US Radar Map shows stormy conditions over Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi from that area of low pressure that dumped heavy rain over Texas and Louisiana this past weekend. Forecast maps show that low persisting over the central United States through next week, when that large upper level trough finally moves through, changing the weather pattern. Remember, you can watch any TV broadcast anywhere across the US by clicking on my link, GET YOUR LOCAL TV FORECAST!. The link is in the right hand column, scroll down to the bottom. Today, a lot of the weather action is in Nashville, Tennessee. You can look at the local radar, and watch the ABC Nashville TV Weather for more information.
Hurricane Ike’s Anniversary was a couple of days ago. A friend sent me this link. It’s pretty cool to see the before and after pictures compiled. I remember watching KHOU, the CBS affiliate in Houston’s, broadcast online all night.
-Dawn Brown
Tropics Remain Quiet
Tropical Waves (courtesy NOAA)
Two tropical waves off the coast of Africa have a less than 30% or low chance of developing in the next two days. The upper level pattern continues to push troughs across the continental United States, forcing the storms away from the coast if they do form.
I’ll be back later tonight!
-Dawn Brown
Love Quiet Mondays
Texas Rainfall (courtesy NWS)
Texas and Louisiana will begin to dry out after a weeks worth of storms dumped more than 10″ of rain in portions of Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. The area of low pressure generating those storms is slowly moving to the Northeast, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still getting hit this Monday. Coastal areas are beginning to see a break, but northern Mississippi and Alabama will be the latest victims of this slow moving system before it finally loses steam.
Grey skies across Southern California as a cold front sweeps through. Although beachgoers may not like it, the cooler temperatures are a welcome weather treat this time of year, at a time when wildfires, driven by Santa Ana winds are fed by the hot temperatures in September and October.
It is a quiet Monday across the country, and silent in the tropics as well. We can ease into the workweek.
For a couple of days now, I’ve been meaning to show you an article I saw on Smart Money magazine online. It’s about the fallacy of the 7-day forecast. The author of the article seems to be “revealing” to people that extended forecasts aren’t very good, but I don’t think any forecaster, including the ones he interviews, argues that they are! Television weathercasters give you the 7-day forecast because the computer models go out 10 days. After about three days, the forecast tends toward climatology. But, sometimes, climatology is correct. What I like about this article is the meteorologists give you the limitations of todays forecasting. What I don’t like about the article is the innuendo that weather forecasters “won’t tell you” the limitations of their forecasting, when he has several meteorologists in the interview giving him the “inside information”. Oh, and the Doppler radar does do a good job during a storm of helping the on-air meteorologist forecast the immediate weather event for the next couple of hours. It also helps the forecaster determine whether a storm is severe, and if the public needs to be warned. Here’s the link to the article:
-Dawn Brown