Dry Air Disrupting 98L

Invest 98L (courtesy NOAA) click to enlarge

The NHC is no longer listing Invest 98L as an area of possible development. Dry air has been wreaking havoc on the area of showers and thunderstorms. Friday night the bursts of reds and yellows, indicating growing thunderstorms, looked impressive. But since Saturday morning, the storm has been having trouble. Click to read more…

However, at least two reliable computer models develop the area of disturbed weather into a tropical system. Dry air, wind shear, and the dust coming off Africa have all played a part in keeping tropical waves from developing into tropical storms and hurricanes this year. The sea surface temperatures are definitely warm enough to support tropical development.

Below is a water vapor image of Invest 98L. Water vapor imagery tells us how much moisture is available in the middle of the atmosphere. You can see as the disturbance or Invest 98L moved westward, it started running into an area of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. And, this has apparently caused a disruption in the storm over the last couple of days. We’ll see if this disruption continues, or the computer models are correct in developing the storm. Even if it did develop into Tropical Storm Grace, it is not expected to impact the US.

Heavy rain continues across the Southeastern States. Check out the ABC Huntsville Flash Flooding reports. I also have a link to the NBC Atlanta Forecast.  – Dawn Brown

Water Vapor Image (courtesy NOAA)