Fred On a Downward Spiral… Heavy Rain in the Gulf

Fred Satellite Image ( Courtesy NOAA)

Hurricane Fred has now weakened to a category 2 hurricane, and will further weaken in the next few days.  Yesterday, I was talking about the wind shear the storm was headed into, and it has already weakened the southern portion of the storm. The storm was never a threat to the US mainland, but now it looks like it will decay faster than expected.

There is a lot of curiosity about some showers and thunderstorms in the western Gulf of Mexico. In the next couple of days, watchful eyes across the Gulf will be on this area of rain and thunderstorms to see if a low level circulation develops.  Watch this forecaster from Houston on the developing low.

No matter if it becomes tropical or not, Texas and Louisiana will get soaked Saturday into Sunday. Ever since Humberto and Claudette’s rapid development in the Gulf, forecasters keep a close eye on these persistent areas of showers and thunderstorms so we’re not caught off guard if it develops into a tropical system, especially since it’s so close to land. In the Gulf of Mexico there’s plenty of warm water, so if a low does develop, it can rapidly. At the same time, the computer models don’t have a great handle on this system.

If you really want a techy explanation of the different computer model solutions, check out Crown Weather’s blog today.

Also, both Max Mayfield, former NHC director, and Jeff Masters from Weather Underground have some interesting statistics on this year’s hurricane season if you want to check out their blogs.

I’ll talk to you later!

-Dawn Brown