Tropical Storm Fred

UPDATE:  Tropical Storm Fred is on the verge of hurricane status, and may increase in intensity overnight. Reliable computer models continue to keep it in the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US mainland, and at some point degenerating in the 5-day forecast.

Tropical Storm Fred is currently in a healthy environment for growth, and may end up being the next major hurricane of the 2009 season in the next couple of days. Upper air steering currents are expected to keep the storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean Basin well away from the United States. This year, upper level troughs traveling across the continental United States have dominated the tropical weather pattern on the East Coast, forcing these storms on a more northerly path once the storm comes close to the US mainland. Most of the models agree on this track for Fred. Click here to track Fred.

While we like to see these upper level troughs send these storms to the middle of the Atlantic, there is another variable that these troughs and associate cold fronts produce. Once the tail end of the cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast, often the front stalls and a circulation can develop along the decaying front. This circulation can allow a tropical system to develop. At this time of year, when a cold front stalls over the Gulf or Atlantic near the coastline, meteorologists watch it closely for possible development. At least one model suggests this may happen in the Western Gulf of Mexico in the next 10 days. We will be watching for that. If you are interested in discussing Fred, check out the MYL Forums.

Also, I have Jeff Masters Weather Undergound blog in my left hand menu bar under HURRICANE BLOGS.  In the next few weeks, he’s introducing a series of blogs on storm surge.  Storm surge has been one of the least understood components of a hurricane’s landfall, but it can be the most destructive component along the Gulf of Mexico. More and more researchers are trying to introduce computer models to give viewers an idea of how storm surge will effect their community during a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge is very localized, meaning the impact is different depending on the terrain where you live. Last year, during Hurricane Gustav, meteorologist Mike Koziara at the National Weather Service in New Orleans briefed me on the storm surge model they run. Koziara explained that terrain factors such as railroads, levees, canals, and the  coastline underwater were all included in the storm surge model. If the storm moves 100 miles to the east or west, this model won’t work, because the terrain is completely different. So, it is an exciting prospect that researchers are tackling this aspect of forecasting a landfalling hurricane.

I just got back from a dive trip on San Clemente island in California. What a great experience! Since Fred is alive and well in the Atlantic, I’ll have another update later tonight.

-Dawn Brown