Gulf Low Keeps Oil Onshore
Satellite Imagery, Gulf Low, Image: NOAA
Earlier today, an area of low pressure off the coast of Louisiana was looking fairly impressive. What I mean by that is thunderstorm tops were showing up on visible satellite imagery, and there was a lot of thunderstorm activity starting to fire up around the center of circulation.
In fact, hurricane specialists gave it a 60% chance of development into a tropical system earlier today. It has since moved closer to shore and it will not develop.
It is, however, increasing the wind and wave action off the coast of Louisiana, and more oil is being pushed onshore.
Wave heights are at about 3-4′. The east-southeasterly winds driving oil onshore would have subsided by tomorrow if it weren’t for another tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
I’ll have another update on that system tomorrow.
-Dawn Brown
95L Does Not Like Dry Air
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea Satellite Imagery, Image: NOAA
This is a current satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the eastern Atlantic Ocean basin. Yesterday, we were watching an area of low pressure south of Louisiana for signs of tropical development. So far, nothing. Dry air has gotten mixed into the low, which is nice because it was actually pleasant in Southeast Louisiana today. Fireworks are popping without a hitch tonight because thunderstorm activity was limited due to dry air.
The biggest concern from the low, however, was the wind and wave action associated with a persistent southeasterly wind. Wave heights have been running about 5 – 6′. But as the low tracks west of Louisiana, heights will back down to 2 – 3′ by tomorrow.
I’m watching an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean. I’ll have an update on that tomorrow.
-Dawn Brown
The Threat Invest 95L Poses to the Gulf Coast
Invest 95L Satellite Imagery, Image: NOAA
National Weather Service link tracking Gulf Low. (Click on the Gulf Low tab above the radar imagery.)
Meteorologists across the Gulf Coast are closely watching Invest 95L despite its lack of organization and poor chance of development. With oil still gushing from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, this low and its associated wind and wave action could drive more oil into sensitive marshes and estuaries along the northern Gulf Coast. Yesterday, hurricane specialists Lixion Avila and Chris Landsea identified the low and gave it a 10% chance of development. We’d already had our eye on it in the FOX 8 Weather Department. Today, Avila and Landsea give it a 20% chance.
Stalled Frontal Boundary, Image: Unisys
In early June and July, the main source of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico is a low that forms off of a stalled frontal boundary in the gulf. You can see the position of the low is about 150 miles or so south-southeast of the boot of Louisiana. There’s a lot of wind shear and dry air affecting the low right now keeping it from developing into anything tropical. Wind shear is expected to remain fairly strong over the next couple of days. So, for this thing to develop, wind shear has to relax and the dry air will have to be replaced by a warm and tropical air mass.
Water Vapor Imagery, Image: NOAA
More troubling for Gulf Coast residents is the wind and wave action associated with a low pressure system east of Louisiana. With oil gushing offshore, a persistent southeast wind could drive the oil onshore. Wave heights are currently about 5 feet around the location of the Deepwater Horizon Incident. Wave heights are forecast to become 6′ offshore, keeping skimmers and other cleanup craft in safe harbor.
-Dawn Brown
Field Trip to the National Hurricane Center
Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Lixion Avila Studies Tropical Storm Alex
Field trip day! About 100 or so television meteorologists, including Bob Breck, my fiance Jonathan Myers and I, boarded a bus to the National Hurricane Center in Miami yesterday.
Bob Breck and Dawn Brown, FOX 8 New Orleans, National Hurricane Center
It was exciting for two reasons. One, I’ve never been there. And, two, there was a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea. Alex doesn’t look like it will be much of a threat to New Orleans when it reemerges in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. But, we don’t take anything for granted until a tropical system has dissipated. This was going to give me a chance to discuss the storm with the experts at the hurricane center.
When you enter the NHC, there’s a big media room to brief reporters during hurricane season. They now have the hurricane specialists separated from the media by glass walls. I can’t imagine it before they put in the glass. The hurricane specialists are trying to study all this satellite and storm data, and they have these cameras over their shoulder, studying them! Now, only one or two cameras are allowed in the media room during a land-falling hurricane.
National Hurricane Center
Behind the glass walls, hurricane specialists track tropical disturbances in both the East Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Today there were 3 tropical cyclones. Hurricane Darby and Celia in the East Pacific and Tropical Storm Alex in the Atlantic.
Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Lixion Avila was the meteorologist tracking Alex. A Cuban native, he was issuing watches and warnings for Mexico, Belize and Honduras, the countries affected by the storm on Saturday.
There were 3 other meteorologists forecasting marine advisories for shipping in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. What an enormous area to cover. The hurricane center also has storm surge specialists, researchers, etc. All in all, they don’t have a huge staff. The hurricane specialists appear to be a tight knit group. It makes sense since they have to work closely together over a period of days while they are watching a storm.
I’ll add a little bit more about my visit to the Hurricane Research Division when I update this tomorrow.
Here’s the latest track forecast for Alex. -Dawn Brown
Alex 5-Day Forecast, Image: NOAA
Alex and the Oil Spill
Tropical Storm Alex forms off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.
Infrared Satellite, TS Alex, Image: NOAA
The current track takes Alex toward the Yucatan, weakening as it crosses the peninsula. Hurricane forecasters expect it to strengthen once again in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, moving toward the south Texas coastline before possibly curving toward the west-southwest.
Official Forecast Track, Tropical Storm Alex
Most of the computer models agree on this forecast track. Hurricane specialists from the National Hurricane Center presented their post-season analysis of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season at a meteorological conference in Miami this week. During their presentation, they announced the European Model, or the ECMWF, has delivered the most successful track forecast the past few years. That model takes Alex toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward central Mexico. The ECMWF isn’t plotted on most computer model tracking maps, if you follow those.
You can find the link to the European model in my link to tracking hurricanes, but it’s hard to read for most people. Keep in mind that the hurricane specialists know which models are giving the best performance when they issue their track forecast, so you can be confident that when you are looking at the 5-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center, that is the most accurate information available.
This past week, two of the government models, the HWRF and the GFDL, were taking the disturbance in the Caribbean to the northern Gulf of Mexico. You can’t really follow computer models for tropical disturbances until there is a tropical depression, or a center of circulation. It’s hard to explain, but the mathematical models are set up to take a storm that has already formed and track it. They do a pretty good job of that. But, until a low, or depression has formed, you can’t rely on all those “spaghetti plots”, as they are familiarly called.
I walked up to Bill Read, the Director of the National Hurricane Center, and I said, “Hi, Mr. Read, I’m Dawn Brown from FOX 8 New Orleans. What’s up with the HWRF?”
Well, he smiled and said, “We initialized the model with a fake storm…, ” to try and give people battling the oil spill an idea of where Alex might go if it formed. Basically, the hurricane specialists had to input some numbers into the storm, such as maximum winds, etc., to run the model, because once again, these models are not designed to work unless there is a storm.
This is why last week, when most of the models were taking the tropical disturbance toward the west, the HWRF and GFDL were headed straight north. Now those two models are more in line with the other computer models and the official track from the National Hurricane Center reflects that.
Does that mean workers near the oil spill need not worry? No. We still have to watch Alex cross the Yucatan and see how it fares in the southwestern Gulf in the beginning of next week.
By the way, I really like Bill Read. Straight shooter, very smart, great communicator.
-Dawn Brown
Website Remodel!
I’m reworking myweatherlady.com to add videos and other elements to better aide educators and weather enthusiasts.
During this process I will not be updating my daily blog.
If you would like an update on the daily forecast and/or more information on weather phenomena, please go to www.fox8live.com and click on the link for weather.
-Dawn Brown
Red River Rises, Spring Flood Forecast
US Flood Risk, Image: NOAA
Sandbagging continues today on the Red River in Fargo, North Dakota. Residents in North Dakota can monitor the latest river stages. As of 11am this morning, the river was at 31′ feet in Fargo, 13′ above flood stage. It’s expected to crest at 38′ this Saturday. They can also watch the river rise through USGS (United States Geological Survey) web cams. Last year, the river rose to 40.8′, a record level for the Red River in Fargo.
24-Hour Snow Melt, Image: NOAA
Rapid snow melt is the main reason for the rising rivers. Near record snowfall across the Northern Plains caused the National Weather Service to put the Red River at a severe risk for flooding.
Red River Webcam, Image: USGS
This is an updated web cam image from earlier today. Look at the obelisk circled in the image. Two days ago, this obelisk was well above the banks of the river.
Red River Webcam, Image: USGS
You can clearly see the banks of the river, the obelisk and a walking trail. This is in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
Major Flood Crests, Grand Forks Image: USGS
Here’s a close up shot of the obelisk on the banks of the river. It marks the flood stage of last year’s flood, and the height of the river in 1897, 1979, 1882 and 1996.
To further monitor the situation, here’s a link to TV forecasters in Fargo and Northern Minnesota.
-Dawn Brown
My New Gig at FOX 8. Check Out The Weather Lab!
It was a gorgeous day in New Orleans today. Dry, breezy and sunny. It’s the kind of weather we look forward to all year. It’s been a cold winter down here, we’ve been waiting for Spring.
Cirrus Clouds, New Orleans Sunset
On my way to talk to a community group tonight, I shot this photo as I was looking to the southwest. What a gorgeous sunset. Louisiana often has beautiful sunsets and sunrises. Interesting cloud formations reflect the sunlight as the sun rises and falls.
Meanwhile, I’ve been neglected my weather blog. My new job at FOX 8 is creating new and interesting challenges. I love my job. We launched a new show called FOX 8 Morning Call on February 1.
Here’s a picture of Chris Franklin and me from this morning at 5am.
Chris Franklin and Dawn Brown, WVUE New Orleans
We started this new show that’s kind of like the Weather Channel, but it’s focused on Southeast Louisiana. We do the usual temperatures, rain chances, forecast, but then we get to spend extra time talking about the wave heights and sea surface temperatures in the lakes and Gulf of Mexico, the kind of stuff fisherman and mariners are interested in. We have the buoy data from all the Gulf Coast buoys plotted in our new weather system.
Here’s the pic I took Friday of the current sea surface temperatures on one of our new weather systems.
Sea Surface Temperatures, (3/12/2010)
Here’s Chris at the weather wall. Because I’m usually doing the weather, I never get to see how weird it looks that we’re pointing at a blank green wall.
Chris Franklin, WVUE New Orleans
Our weather graphics are projected onto the wall, and we are “keyed” out of the graphics. We can’t wear green or we would blend right into the graphics. We’ll probably both get pinched on St. Patty’s Day!
It’s awesome having two meteorologists in the mornings. Besides having the extra help with forecasts and graphics, we get to explain basic weather phenomenon, like hail, high pressure systems, sea fog, etc.
Every week, Chris and I also host a segment called “Weather Lab”, where we explain basic weather terms with experiments. Last week, Chris crushed a soda can with air pressure.
I’m having a blast! However, I’ve been remiss with my weather blog and adding new features to my website. I’m getting back on track… bear with me.
Thanks – Dawn Brown
A Rough Wednesday in Store
After tornadoes have already struck early this week in places like Oklahoma, another storm system will be swinging into the mid-section of the country with another bout of severe weather on the way for Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The Gulf of Mexico is now open for business, pushing dew points above the 60-degree-mark all the way up the southern Mississippi Valley, and more moisture is slated to crawl northward.
US Surface Dew Point Map, Image: Unisys Weather
The dew point is the measure of moisture in the air and it is this moisture that drives thunderstorms. Once the dew point exceeds 60, in combination with several other factors, the atmosphere is generally primed for thunderstorms and just waiting for a system to move in.
US Infrared Satellite Image, Image: Unisys Weather
It is the system circled above that will be that next system on Wednesday. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has extended an area of slight risk of severe weather all the way up the lower Mississippi Valley and into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The main threats are damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Severe Weather Outlook Wednesday-Early Thursday, Image: NOAA
Television meteorologists are talking about this elevated threat of severe weather in places like Mobile, New Orleans, and Little Rock.
Spring Has Sprung in the East For Now
After record setting snows and unseasonable cold across the eastern 2/3 of the United States this winter, the table have turned, at least temporarily. This weekend, sunshine is the main player across much of the East as fair-weather high pressure retains control, meaning a well-deserved respite with highs ranging from the pleasant 50s in the Northeast to near 70 degrees across the Gulf South! Place seeing the beautiful weather include Philadelphia, Raleigh, and New Orleans.
National Weather Service Advisories Map, Source: NOAA
Meanwhile, the “trough,” or dip in the jet stream, that was plaguing the East with precipitation and cold weather, has shifted to the West Coast, allowing in storm systems and markedly colder air. Here, one cold storm is expected to swing across the Pacific Northwest allowing for snow as low as 1,000 feet around the Medford, OR area d0wn to northern California on Monday. Here, Winter Weather Advisories are posted above 2,000 feet for up to 4″ of snow. Another storm is rotating through the Southwest, affecting high elevations above 5,oo0 feet around Flagstaff and Tucson, AZ with up to 14″ of snow through Monday.
Satellite & Surface Map, Image: Unisys Weather